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eBay INC 2012 4th Quarter Earnings Call Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers

eBay INC 2012 4th Quarter Earnings Call Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers
18 January 2012
EventHorizon1984

 

eBay INC CEO John J. Donahoe said during the Fourth Quarter Earnings Call, "“We had a strong fourth quarter finish to an excellent year, increasing our confidence in our three-year outlook."  Meanwhile Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel said, "sell."  Fodder for thought if you live and die by eBay INC stock fluctuations.  Whereas small businesses on eBay are more concerned with, 'How did the Marketplaces section of eBay.com do?'.

Well.                                  

Numbers from eBay's 01/17/2012 SEC 8-K filing show a healthy net total Marketplaces quarter to quarter revenue growth of 7%.  Up from the previous quarter growth of "0%".  It is also a slight improvement over the fourth quarter 2010 growth of 6%.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 01/18/2012

Marketplace revenues are principally generated through fees paid by users of eBay.com.  The payees being the business who use eBay.com to sell products.

How many products were there during the fourth quarter?.

According to Medved.net eBay started the fouth quarter with approximately 154 million listings per day. 

Auction chart from Medved.net.

Auction chart from Medved.net.

The count peaked at 177 million.  The fourth quarter ended with approximately 162 million products.

If you were selling on eBay.com, were you using PayPal?

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 01/18/2012

The number of PayPal payments made increased a robust "19%", compared to the previous quarter's increase of "6%."  It is also a tiny improvement over the fourth quarter 2010 growth of 18%.

PayPal payment volume was up "14%", compared to third quarter's anemic "2%" increase.  However it is well below the fourth quarter growth of 20%.

According to eBay INC, the "Take rate" declined for the first time in 2011.  The fourth quarter "Take rate", that is the percentage of a PayPal transaction that Ebay INC keeps, stands at "3.71%."  Down from the previous quarter amount of "3.78%"

What about eBay INC's Bill Me Later payment method? 

eBay INC reports Bill Me Later losses increased and decreased and.  The Net charge-off rate, losses, increased slightly to "4.4" from the second quarter's "4.3%."  However the 90-day delinquency rate decreased to "2.4%", compared to the previous quarter's "2.6%."

Once again eBay's payment transaction losses remaining more or less stable.  It still remains to be seen why eBay INC continues to increase the amount of funds held from eBay's customers.  Going from 2010 fourth quarter's $2,550,731,000 to this quarter's $3,967,550,000.  Nearly four billion being held, versus the previous quarter's $3,295,115,000.

What about the merchandise selection on eBay.com? 

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 01/18/2012

eBay INC states Gross Merchandising Volume (GMV) represents the "Total value of all successfully closed items between users on eBay Marketplaces trading platforms during the quarrter, regardless of whether the buyer and seller actually consummated the transaction."

Four quarter being essentially the Christmas shopping season, GMV quarter to quarter growth increased a healthy "12%". A definite improvement from the the rest of the year's growth numbers of "0%", "1%", and "-4%".  But that "12%" is poor in comparison to the fourth quarter 2010 growth of "19%".

Remember last quarter John Donahoe touted a GMV increase of 16%?  Christmas shopping season is the biggest boost to commerce's bottom line.  Fourth quarter should have buried that "16%".  However fourth quarter pulled in a year to year increase of only "10%."  A significant decrease compared to the previous quarter's "16%" and "17%".

The GMV for vehicles was a dismal decrease of "-13%" quarter to quarter.  A significant fall from the "-4%" decrease of the second quarter.  Year to year Vehicle GMV growth was a decrease of "-3%".  eBay INC's vehicle market is dying.  Why eBay INC allows this degradation to continue is unknown.

"E-Commerce up > 23%!!"

John Donahoe became eBay INC CEO in March 2008, and will finish his fourth year of CEO stewardship in March 2012.  What is the stock trader's view?

At the start of John Donahoe's tenure, eBay INC's stock price was 29.84 (31 March 2008).  At the end of the trading day, eBay INC closed at 30.34. 

Trading today was frantic.  Total shares traded stood at 31,514,297, versus the average daily transaction volume of 10,863,900 shares.  Dropping eBay INC's stock price from 30.53 to 30.34.  The after hours price, that is transactions made after the Earnings Call, stands at 31.05.

eBay INC's official investor page, in the matter of eBay INC stock dividends declares:

Which means the average individual investor must 'buy low' and 'sell high' to materially profit from eBay INC stock.  Such an investor who bought on 31 March 2008 and sold today would have made fifty cents per share ($30.34 - $29.84).

Less transaction fees of course.

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" eBay Motors Parts and Accessories - This category saw very strong growth in December, coming in at a record-setting 57.6% y/y growth for ChannelAdvisor customers in the category."

Scot Wingo, CEO ChannelAdvisor

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EcommerceBytes To Censor Reader Comments

EcommerceByes To Censor Reader Comments ... NOT REALLY
31 December 2011
EventHorizon1984

Based solely on the teaser title of this piece, you may have felt the need to post a comment. 

Immediately. 

Keep that feeling in mind should you read the rest of this article.

David Steiner said in the EcommerceBytes article "Should EcommerceBytes Blogs Be Verified Only?" about future comments:

• "We still left open the option to post without becoming verified, but we're strongly considering making it mandatory to be AB-Verified to use our services."

Spam is the primary reason EcommerceBytes (formerly AuctionBytes) is considering the move toward requiring posters to verify themselves.

As Mr. Steiner put it:

• "I am the person who has to clean out the 200 or so spam comments left overnight, anything that puts another obstacle in the way of a spammer is, in my estimation, a good thing."

He closed with, "We are interested in your perspective".

Our collective answer is No.

The Spam Solution

While we empathize with the Spam problem, one of our associates deals with about 50 spam and link emails daily, Spam is not justification for potentially throttling down reader comments.

As an extreme example of a login blog, view the comments on ChannelAdvisor CEO Scot Wingo's eBay Strategies Blog article "Holiday 2011 Late December Update - E-Commerce up >23%!!".  The December 22nd article has zero comments.  A similar article on EcommerceBytes would have more than zero comments.

With the computer industry contacts that EcommerceBytes has available, Spam control should never be an issue.  Or an excuse.

The Improved Discussion Solution

Mr. Steiner stated:

• "I have also empirically observed that since we implemented AB-Verify, the level of discussion has improved. Users with a single ID tied to all of their comments often take a much more thoughtful approach to a discussion"

With respect, most here haven't seen much of a "much more thoughtful approach".  There are definitely less posts on average per article.  Giving the appearance of a more civil conversation.

The Merriam-Webster definition of empirical:

• "originating in or based on observation or experience"

The flip side of an empirical observation (emphasis mine):

• "relying on experience or observation alone often without due regard for system and theory"
• "capable of being verified or disproved by observation or experiment"

A user verification system does Not guarantee "a more thoughful approach to a discussion" elsewhere on the Internet.  One can find verified EcommerceBytes users, posting regularly on the Yahoo! eBay Message Board.  The level of thoughful commentary there is sparse.

There are other sordid examples of user verified comment sites, with odious posts from (as I understand it) people with verified EcommerceBytes accounts.

Quality posts depend on the quality of site moderation, not user verfication. 

David and Ina Steiner provide excellent site moderation.  User verification has nothing to do with the post quality.

The Problem With Verification

"I think people forget that business is war and the most competitive medium right now is social media", Richard Hillgrove

What does being EcommerceBytes verified mean?

David Steiner said:

• "If you aren't familiar with what is required to become AB-Verified, we're asking for one thing: a valid email address."

Verification means that account has an email address.  Everything else need not necessarily be factual.

You might ask, 'what about the IP address?', 'can't people be tracked through their IP address?'. 

Don't count on that IP being useful, or an indicator that a real person is attached to it.  As Mr. Steiner observed:

• "There are almost as many email services out there as there are proxy servers."

A "proxy server is a computer that offers a computer network service to allow clients to make indirect network connections to other network services." 

In other words, "they also hide the user's own IP address from the web sites they access through the proxy, they are sometimes also used to gain a degree of anonymity."

Any one, or any organization, can be anonymous.  An anonymous IP is helpful to individuals protective of their privacy.  But anonymity is critical to some businesses.

The BBC article "Fake forum comments are 'eroding' trust in the web" contained this blunt but understated passage:

• "Some firms have created tens of thousands of fake accounts to flood chat forums and skew debate."

The article "How big firms bash their rivals, in public and private" had this unkind passage:

• ""Sock puppetry" is what ensues when company stooges post multiple entries under assumed names, posing as members of the public, in order to boost the apparent popularity of a product."

It's a given that sock puppets will register.  They don't get paid if they don't post.  But does verification process keep out the "company stooges"?  Who by "eroding trust" are a detriment to EcommerceBytes.  Only Heaven and the Steiner's know.

However it is not a given that readership will register.  If "it is invaluable to have a readership that is "plugged-in" (David Steiner), perhaps it is worth considering that most EcommerceBytes posters don't bother with login's.

Epilogue

At the beginning of this article, we asked you to remember how you felt about commenting.

You can do that here by writing below, and sending it.  Period.

EcommenceBytes wants to implement a system where you:

1. Register with EcommerceBytes.
2. Wait for the approval email.
3. Login whenever you wish to make a comment.
4. Write the comment and send it.

If you're a regular poster, or sock puppet, registration is not a major pain.  

But if you are 'just passing through', or the occasional reader, or spur of the moment type poster, that is new fresh readership, will you be waiting around a day or two to say something?  Probably not.

Having watched and/or been a part of user verified sites since ARPANET and CompuServe, one social dynamic hasn't changed.  Eventually two major posting groups form.  Those who are passionate about a topic, and those paid to write comments.

Passion fades, but mercenaries are forever.

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"No one here is exactly what he appears."
G'Kar, Babylon 5

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References of interest:

• Fake forum comments are 'eroding' trust in the web, 24 November 2011
• How big firms bash their rivals, in public and private, 13 May 2011
• Will fake business blogs crash and burn?, 22 May 2008

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Star Wars: The Old Republic Beta Test Observations

Star Wars: The Old Republic Beta Test Observations
29 November 2011
EventHorizon1984

It was a warm November 21st. An evening made memorable by the arrival of an email that started with the following sentence.

You are invited to test Star Wars: The Old Republic!

It was not a phishing email.

Before going further:

• Star Wars: The Old Republic^TM is the property of LucasArts and LucasFilm and Electronic Arts (EA) and BioWare (a division of EA). 
• Limited use of their material is covered under the Fair Use Doctrine.
• Beta testers are bound by an amended Game Testing Agreement.
• The November 25 2011 amendment to the non disclosure agreement reads:

You may well ask what is Star Wars: The Old Republic?  According to EA, BioWare, and LucasArts:

• "Set thousands of years before the rise of Darth Vader, Star Wars: The Old Republic is a massively multiplayer online game challenging players with epic quests, featuring dynamic combat across iconic worlds in the Star Wars™ galaxy such as Tatooine, Alderaan, Hoth and more. Each of the game’s eight primary classes will enjoy their own unique trilogy of storylines, all of which are fully voiced with a sweeping musical score."

We believe the game will be a hit, and reach an initial half-million subscribers.  With one million subscribers by the end of the first year.

Of course we could be wrong, and the dim sour grapes view from a major competitor could be correct.

• Activision CEO Thinks Star Wars: The Old Republic Will Fail

Of course the Activision CEO Bobby Kotick may have other motives for his comments.

• Blizzard's flagship game World of Warcraft loses 800K subscribers in Q3

About that beta test...

The beta test began November 25th, and sadly ended the evening of the 28th.  I liked it.

Obligatory game play screen shot.

While now allowed to comment in detail on the game, I won't (mostly).  The game has a very cinematic feel and the details would be one giant Spoiler Alert, because each character you play is story driven.

• "... it's a surprise.  Hey, are you the kind of kid who reads the last page of a mystery first?  Who pesters the magician to tell you his tricks?  Who sneaks downstairs to peek at his Christmas presents?  Noooo, of course you're not.  That's why I'm not gonna tell you!"

Do you really want to know who's your Daddy?

Besides other gaming experts will describe in excrutiating details ALL the spoilers, and ruin the experience.

Having said that ...

This is a Windows only game. 

The beta software was a download of approximately 19GB.  Buying a box set will save you from the hours it will take to download a fresh complete digital copy.  Abet you will need to download any recent updates.  However digital pre-order owners may get access to the game up to five days in advance.  

'Getting into the game required very little instruction.  Gameplay was as they say, intuitive.  The character controls were smooth and responsive*, with no appreciable lag.  However this may change when the first hundred thousand players sign in.  blah, blah.

There is "shooter" action aplenty to keep a gamer occupied.  You may enjoy sending that first hand launched missile at an opponent, and see the body (bodies) fly.  Or 'feel' the impact of your light sabre in a fight.  Or chuckle at the sound and graphics of a "Dirty Kick" attack; "oooh that's gotta hurt".  Or find your companion outplaying you, as she goes all out Xena Warrior Princess medieval on an opponent.  No graphic game violence though.

When you're in a large area with a few dozen other players battling it out, don't get killed watching.

You will find movie references.

"That's 'cause droids don't pull people's arms out of their sockets when they lose." Han Solo

SPOILER ALERT

But what was most disturbing, was uncovering why the Republic fell.

A Marker on Coruscant.  The bane of Isaac Clarke's life.  

Ok, not really a spoiler or Marker.

Star Wars: The Old Republic is scheduled for release in North America on 20 December 2011, and Europe on 22 December 2011.

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"Well, you may have thought it was a game, but it was also a test.  Aha, a test!  Sent out across the galaxy to find those with the potential to be Starfighters.  And here you are, my boy!  Here you are! "
Centauri (Robert Preston), The Last Starfighter (1984)

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Disclosure - Multiple copies of Star Wars: The Old Republic have been pre-ordered.  Some here are Electronic Arts, BioWare, Amazon, Origin, GameStop, and Blizzard customers.

* Game was tested on two different systems:

1. i7-2600K processor, 16GB memory, dual HD 6950 CrossFire
2. i7-2600K processor, 16GB memory, dual HD 6850 CrossFire

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