EventHorizon1984 Log

The Hype of Mobile Payments

The Hype of Mobile Payments
14 April 2012
EventHorizon1984

 

There is a growing trend of companies playing fast and loose with the "mobile" descriptor.  When these folks talk "mobile" payments, sales, etal., readers/listeners are guided to the assumption that any statistics given are solely for smart phone transactions.  Which is not true.

"There are a lot of people talking about mobile payments these days."
John Donahoe, 2012

"I do not think it means what you think it means."
Inigo Montoya, The Princess Bride (1987)

By example, eBay paid writer Richard Brewer-Hay stated, "eBay Inc. anticipates continued growth in mobile sales and payments in 2012 as shopping on smartphones and tablet devices."  Qualifying "mobile sales and payments" are not only smart phones.

So what is a "mobile" or "mobile payment"?

A standard definition of mobile payment:

"Any payment where a mobile device is used in order to initiate, activate and/or confirm this payment can be considered as a mobile payment.  This definition includes a wide palette of approaches, and points out the fact that mobile payments do not restrict themselves to payments via the mobile phone but virtually any mobile device such as a smartphone, PDA, tablet PC or even merchant-operated mobile terminals."
IEEE Symposium on Trends in Communications (SymptoTIC '04), 24-26 October 2004, Bratislava, Slovikia.

Or if you prefer United States based and short:

"Mobile Payment - Payment initiated from a mobile device."
Mobile Payments in the United States
Mapping Out the Road Ahead
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, BetterBuyDesign, March 25, 2011

Now a few are asking, 'smart phone, mobile, what's the big deal?'

It's a matter of choice to be completely factual, or choosing to be fast and loose with the details.

"we live in a mobile home.  That's a cave that goes places.  Only we never went anyplace." Alex Rogan
"A mobile cave that never went anywhere.  Fascinating."  Grig
The Last Starfighter (1984)

The Merriam-Webster definition of mobile is, "capable of moving or being moved".

By this definition, some companies are loosely telling the truth about "mobile".  While that definition of "mobile" is an excellent means of inflating numbers, it is misleading.

Again by example, selected at random a link to point-of-sale (POS) mobile terminals:

http://www.networksolutions.com/merchant-accounts/retail-pos.jsp

These are POS devices that use cell phones for connectivity.  As written for one device, "mobile payment processing through your 3G/3GS/4G iPhone".

Note they state "mobile payment processing", i.e. mobile payment.

By one standard definition, these are "merchant-operated mobile terminals".

Let's suppose you're small warehouse seller Acme Widgets.   With these mobile devices, in 2011 you processed $1 million in credit card transactions.  Acme Widgets could state factually, mobile payments in 2011 reached $1 million.  Or state they processed $1 million in transactions through smart phones.  Even though they processed zero customer initiated smart phone payments.

Anyone with similar portable, read mobile, POS systems can make the same claims.  It's truthful, but nevertheless inflating the mobile payments numbers.

By the way, next time you're shopping at a brick-and-mortar, check out the wireless POS devices.  Wireless systems are considered Merriam-Webster mobile.  Like your wireless mobile laser printer.

You might ask, 'why bother massaging numbers, mobile payments are huge.'

"eBay's global mobile GMV reached $5 billion in 2011"
Richard Brewer-Hay, 11 January 2012

$6.0 trillion - 2011 total volume of transactions
Visa Inc

While we believe in the future mobile payments will be huge, as a percentage of eCommerce and Commerce today, they are rather small.

The figures for eCommerce as a percentage of total Commerce:

• "E-commerce sales in the fourth quarter of 2011 accounted for 5.5 percent of total sales."

This percentage tracks rather well with numbers from a handful of brick-and-mortar stores:

• "Online share of sales at big brick-and-mortal retailers
• 8.7% Sears
• 7.2% Macy's
• 2% Target
• 2% Walmart"

In the case of Walmart, "2011 online sales amounted to less than 2 percent of its $264 billion in U.S. revenue".

Let's shrink the pie further.

The figures for United States mobile payment/m-commerce:

• In the US, m-commerce revenues are expected to hit $6 billion by the end of 2011, growing to $31 billion by 2016, according to Forrester Research (June 2011).
• But m-commerce will only be 2 percent of e-commerce in 2011 and 7 percent of e-commerce in 2016.
• The average annual spend on mobile purchases was US$300.

Worldwide the numbers are:

• $86.1 billion in 2011

Yes that would be United States eCommerce is 5.5% of Commerce.  With m-commerce being 2% of that 5.5%.

What should you take away from this article?  The next time you see someone waving a smart phone and saying $Blahblah "mobile", look for the specific dollar amount breakdowns attributed to smart phones and other devices by region.

Bet you won't see any.

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"In 2011, PayPal's net total payment volume, or TPV, for transactions using mobile devices reached $4 billion"
eBay INC Form 10-K, 31 January 2012

http://www.frbatlanta.org/documents/rprf/rprf_pubs/110325_wp.pdf
"U.S. financial institutions have not offered mobile financial payments because of a perceived lack of a good business case, although the growth of mobile banking implementations and recent mobile payment trials signal this may be changing."
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 25 March 2011

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The Sutchi Hui Pedestrian versus Chris Bucchere Bicyclist Incident. San Francisco Vehicular Fatality.

The Case of Sutchi Hui Pedestrian versus Chris Bucchere Bicyclist.  One Dead In San Francisco.
9 April 2012
EventHorizon1984

 

We are not a current events type of space.  But sometimes something comes up ......

On 29 March 2012, in the city of San Francisco, a bicyclist identified as Chris Bucchere collided with a pedestrian identified as Sutchi Hui.  Mr. Bucchere survived the impact.  Mr. Hui died later at the hospital.

While this type of sad event happens around the world daily, it's what happened after the collision that made headlines.

One viewable by the public online post.

"Never post anything you don't want repeated in RL."
SoccerkickrevivaL

An individual identifying themselves as "Chris Bucchere" wrote a post about the incident on the Mission Cycling AM Rider Google group (http://groups.google.com/group/mc-am-riders).

We pieced together and verified from various sources, the contents of that Mission Cycling AM Rider Google group post.  See below.

Wrecked

Dear Missionistas / Raiders of the Morning, Famiglia and Amigos,

I wrecked on the way home today from the bi-weekly Headlands Raid today. Short story: I'm fine. The pedestrian I clobbered? Not so much.

Around 8 a.m. I was descending Divisadero Street southbound and about to cross Market Street. The light turned yellow as I was approaching the intersection, but I was already way too committed to stop. The light turned red as I was cruising through the middle of the intersection and then, almost instantly, the southern crosswalk on Market and Castro filled up with people coming from both directions. The intersection very long and the width of Castro Street at that point is very short, so, in a nutshell, blammo.

The quote/unquote 'scene of the crime' was that intersection right by the landmark Castro Theatre – it leads from a really busy MUNI station to that little plaza where The Naked Guy always hangs out. It was commuter hour and it was crowded as all getup. I couldn't see a line through the crowd and I couldn't stop, so I laid it down and just plowed through the crowded crosswalk in the least-populated place I could find.

I don't remember the next five minutes but when I came to, I was in a neck brace being loaded into an ambulance. I remember seeing a RIVER of blood on the asphalt, but it wasn't mine. Apparently I hit a 71-year-old male pedestrian and he ended up in the ICU with pretty serious head injuries. I really hope he ends up OK.

They asked me a bunch of stupid easy questions that I couldn't answer, so they kept me for a few hours for observation, gave me a tetanus shot and sent me on my way.

Anyway, other than a stiff neck, a sore jaw/TMJ, a few bruises and some raspberries, I'm totally fine. I got discharged from the hospital durning the lunch hour. The guy I hit was not as fortunate. I really hope he makes it.

The cops took my bike. Hopefully they'll give it back.

In closing, I want to dedicate this story to my late helmet. She died in heroic fashion today as my head slammed into the tarmac. Like the Secret Service would do for a president, she took some serious pavement today, cracking through-and-through in five places and getting completely mauled by the ragged asphalt. May she die knowing that because she committed the ultimate sacrifice, her rider can live on and ride on. Can I get an amen?

Amen.

The moral of this little story is: WYFH

Hoping you'll all keep the rubber side down,

Chris

We here would love to make a few choice personal comments about this masterpiece, but it would not be fit to print.

"All we want are the facts"
Joe Friday, Dragnet

Let's go over some of this

The above post was attributed to Chris Bucchere, because his email address was attached to it.  One problem with that logic; if you want to get one of his email addresses it's easy enough to use Google to get one.

For instance you can get a Chris Bucchere email address from http://feedhaus.com/.

Or make one up, with his name imbedded within.

All well within the realm of what any simpleton Internet Troll could accomplish.

To objectively state that Chris Bucchere made that post, where a computer is involved, you need to link the IP address associated with that email address to him.  Match the MAC address to a device he has access to or owns.  And then prove he was at that specific device at the time of the post.

If that post was made from a smart phone, best of luck trying to reverse trace the phone number and phone that made the post. 

Ok, neither are outrageously difficult to obtain, but that's another discussion.

Not to say this is impossible.  But the reverse process, a search warrant for Chris Bucchere's phone and Internet records, requires some probable cause. 

You can read the appropriate California statute for yourself: 

Penal Code Section 1523-1542

So did Chris Bucchere, the one in the collision, make that post? 

The site associated to that group, MissionCycling.org, had this to say:

"The mailing list this was posted to exists solely to allow the broader cycling community to communicate about cycling events and related topics. It was by no means an official Mission Cycling members list. Chris Bucchere’s post came as a surprise and shock to all of us who read it."

The owners of that Google group say it's him, but that's not proof.

Let's take a different and public tact.

"There's a war out there, old friend. A world war. And it's not about who's got the most bullets. It's about who controls the information. What we see and hear, how we work, what we think... it's all about the information!"
Cosmo, Sneakers (1992)

There is a growing misconception that the poster known as "Chris Bucchere" only made that one incident post.  This is not true.

View for yourself some posts attributed to poster "Chris Bucchere", going back to 2010, on the Mission Cycling AM Google group.

To do this, use Google and search for "site:groups.google.com groups.google.com/group/mc-am-riders "chris bucchere"".

Because that group closed itself to the public, use the Google "Cached" option to view messages.

A cursory examination shows that the poster known as "Chris Bucchere" had a good online rapport with other group members.  Not out of the ordinary with online groups.  Plus he left multiple Internet links identifying himself.  Abet any Internet Troll could do this.

But when you read his postings, you will find out he had a good offline, that is a person to person relationship, with other group members.  Internet Trolls are not known for doing this, unless they're into Identity Theft.

A Detective would have no problem determining if the poster known as "Chris Bucchere" is the Chris Bucchere the Police interviewed on 29 March 2012.

The original post was deleted, making an online public reading difficult.  But not impossible.  If you're really the curious type, do a Google search for "Wrecked - Mission Cycling AM Riders".  Suggest using the quotes ("").

We suspect that link leads to the post that's making news around the world.

Currently that link will not yield that post, and at present it's not Google cached yet.  However the original post might show up in the Google cache in the coming weeks.  Should it appear, you'll probably see it circulating around the Internet.

Unless Google decides to quash it, or has already deleted it.

"the southern crosswalk on Market and Castro"
The poster known as "Chris Bucchere"

What does the area involving the death of Sutchi Hui look like?

The view as provided by www.dailymail.co.uk:

The view as provided by www.sfgate.com:

The view as provided by zzz.sfbg.com:

The view as provided by sfist.com:



"I was cruising through the middle of the intersection and then, almost instantly, the southern crosswalk on Market and Castro filled up with people"
The poster known as "Chris Bucchere"

There is an article, "The Chris Bucchere Accident", which includes video of pedestrians in the Castro & Market Street area.  The area of the above photos.

You can judge for yourself whether pedestrians can fill a crosswalk "instantly."

"I couldn't see a line through the crowd and I couldn't stop, so I laid it down and just plowed through the crowded crosswalk in the least-populated place I could find."
The poster known as "Chris Bucchere"

One might wonder what "laying the bike down" means.  It's a term taken from a motorcycle maneuver, which involves hitting the pavement and sliding.

Here's a motorcycle explanation and photo:

How to Lay Down the Bike

There is an interesting section within; "Today's bikes are also capable of stopping faster than ever before, making the advice about always lying down to avoid a crash obsolete."

Now imagine a bicycle and bicyclist going sideways, not upright.  Into a crowd of pedestrians.

Likely scenario would be the two wheels are facing the crowd, with the bulk of the bicycle protecting the rider.

Our opinionated question is 'Why didn't he turn (left or right)?'.

"The light turned red as I was cruising through the middle of the intersection."
The poster known as "Chris Bucchere"

"The light was yellow, sir."
Jake Elwood, The Blues Brothers (1980)

According to the Police there is a, 'motorist who reported seeing Bucchere and another cyclist fly through several red lights and stop signs before the deadly Castro district crash.'

We'll have to wait and see what statements were made by other people AT the incident area.

It was after all, the commuter hour and crowded.

Unconfirmed at this point, is the notion that there were traffic cameras, and other cameras, automatically recording the incident.

"I laid it down and just plowed through the crowded crosswalk"
The poster known as "Chris Bucchere"

Is a bicycle considered a vehicle in California?

V C Section 21200 Laws Applicable to Bicycle Use Peace Officer Exemption:

"A person riding a bicycle or operating a pedicab upon a highway has all the rights and is subject to all the provisions applicable to the driver of a vehicle by this division"

Answer:  Yes.

Much has been made of whether the light was yellow or red.  Isn't a bicycle/vehicle supposed to yield to pedestrians, whether the light is red, yellow, or gren?

Right-of-Way at Crosswalks

21950.  (a) The driver of a vehicle shall yield the right-of-way to a pedestrian crossing the roadway within any marked crosswalk or within any unmarked crosswalk at an intersection, except as otherwise provided in this chapter.
(b) This section does not relieve a pedestrian from the duty of using due care for his or her safety. No pedestrian may suddenly leave a curb or other place of safety and walk or run into the path of a vehicle that is so close as to constitute an immediate hazard. No pedestrian may unnecessarily stop or delay traffic while in a marked or unmarked crosswalk.
(c) The driver of a vehicle approaching a pedestrian within any marked or unmarked crosswalk shall exercise all due care and shall reduce the speed of the vehicle or take any other action relating to the operation of the vehicle as necessary to safeguard the safety of the pedestrian.
(d) Subdivision (b) does not relieve a driver of a vehicle from the duty of exercising due care for the safety of any pedestrian within any marked crosswalk or within any unmarked crosswalk at an intersection.

According to part (d) a pedestrian in a marked crosswalk has right-of-way.  Meaning the vehicle yields.  Read, STOP.

"Reporters.  They want a comment."  Robert Goren
"Can they print a hand gesture."  Alexandra Eames
Law & Order: Criminal Intent

Then there's this tragedy.

Teen Driver Arrested After SUV Hits 3 Cyclists In Concord, Killing 2

The driver was "arrested on manslaughter charges in the death of 2 bicyclists.  Essentially reckless driving, speeding, and two fatalities.

That incident took place on 7 April 2012 at "9:30 a.m."  The arrest was recorded in an article posted at 10:50 AM.

Contrast that action with Chris Bucchere, who according to MissionCycling.org, "reckless riding on that day", probably GPS tracked going 35.2 mph in a 25 mph zone, resulting in one fatality?

This incident took place on March 29, 2012.  Over a week later the "Prosecutors have not filed charges but are looking into the case."

Guess in San Francisco, if you're under two vehicular fatalities, it's ok.

/*

"Don't try to usurp my throne, bitch! *I* am the slowest person in the group."
The poster known as "Chris Bucchere", 7 December 2011

"Recently retired from asking for or seeking anything from anyone. Now simply accepting my destiny."
Chris Bucchere

/*

Some references.

• http://www.google.com
• http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2126649/Chris-Bucchere-accused-KILLING-71-year-old-defending-actions-cycling-internet-forum.html
  --  'I plowed through... and blammo': Cyclist accused of KILLING 71-year-old after brazenly telling internet forum how he ran him over
• http://www.marinij.com/sausalito/ci_20334356/cyclist-involved-fatal-s-f-crash-was-coming  --  
Cyclist involved in fatal S.F. crash was coming from Marin Headlands ride
• http://www.sfbg.com/politics/2012/04/05/was-cyclist-who-killed-pedestrian-reckless  --  
Was the cyclist who killed a pedestrian reckless?
• http://sfist.com/2012/04/05/cyclist_who_struck_pedestrian_at_ca.php  --  
Cyclist Who Struck Pedestrian At Castro: "I Just Plowed Through The Crowded Crosswalk"
• http://dothedude.blogspot.com/2012/04/asshole-cyclist-looking-for-sympathy.html  --  
Asshole Cyclist Looking For Sympathy Buys Himself A Heap Of Trouble
• http://tarckbike.com/node/17985
Jackass of the day  --  Jackass of the day
• http://sfcitizen.com/blog/2012/04/06/did-strava-com-help-kill-pedestrian-sutchi-hui-whats-your-time-on-the-castro-street-descent-aka-castro-street-bomb/
  --  Did STRAVA.Com Help Kill Pedestrian Sutchi Hui? Timing Yourself on the “Castro Street Descent” (AKA Castro Street Bomb)
• http://holierthanyou.blogspot.com/2012/04/chris-bucchere-accident.html  --  Holier than You Blog:  The Chris Bucchere Accident
• http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma.cfm?go=forum.posts&thread=1982296&forum=2&page=1&pc=24  --  Talking about your legal issues on a public forum

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eBay INC 2012 4th Quarter Earnings Call Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers

eBay INC 2012 4th Quarter Earnings Call Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers
18 January 2012
EventHorizon1984

 

eBay INC CEO John J. Donahoe said during the Fourth Quarter Earnings Call, "“We had a strong fourth quarter finish to an excellent year, increasing our confidence in our three-year outlook."  Meanwhile Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel said, "sell."  Fodder for thought if you live and die by eBay INC stock fluctuations.  Whereas small businesses on eBay are more concerned with, 'How did the Marketplaces section of eBay.com do?'.

Well.                                  

Numbers from eBay's 01/17/2012 SEC 8-K filing show a healthy net total Marketplaces quarter to quarter revenue growth of 7%.  Up from the previous quarter growth of "0%".  It is also a slight improvement over the fourth quarter 2010 growth of 6%.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 01/18/2012

Marketplace revenues are principally generated through fees paid by users of eBay.com.  The payees being the business who use eBay.com to sell products.

How many products were there during the fourth quarter?.

According to Medved.net eBay started the fouth quarter with approximately 154 million listings per day. 

Auction chart from Medved.net.

Auction chart from Medved.net.

The count peaked at 177 million.  The fourth quarter ended with approximately 162 million products.

If you were selling on eBay.com, were you using PayPal?

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 01/18/2012

The number of PayPal payments made increased a robust "19%", compared to the previous quarter's increase of "6%."  It is also a tiny improvement over the fourth quarter 2010 growth of 18%.

PayPal payment volume was up "14%", compared to third quarter's anemic "2%" increase.  However it is well below the fourth quarter growth of 20%.

According to eBay INC, the "Take rate" declined for the first time in 2011.  The fourth quarter "Take rate", that is the percentage of a PayPal transaction that Ebay INC keeps, stands at "3.71%."  Down from the previous quarter amount of "3.78%"

What about eBay INC's Bill Me Later payment method? 

eBay INC reports Bill Me Later losses increased and decreased and.  The Net charge-off rate, losses, increased slightly to "4.4" from the second quarter's "4.3%."  However the 90-day delinquency rate decreased to "2.4%", compared to the previous quarter's "2.6%."

Once again eBay's payment transaction losses remaining more or less stable.  It still remains to be seen why eBay INC continues to increase the amount of funds held from eBay's customers.  Going from 2010 fourth quarter's $2,550,731,000 to this quarter's $3,967,550,000.  Nearly four billion being held, versus the previous quarter's $3,295,115,000.

What about the merchandise selection on eBay.com? 

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 01/18/2012

eBay INC states Gross Merchandising Volume (GMV) represents the "Total value of all successfully closed items between users on eBay Marketplaces trading platforms during the quarrter, regardless of whether the buyer and seller actually consummated the transaction."

Four quarter being essentially the Christmas shopping season, GMV quarter to quarter growth increased a healthy "12%". A definite improvement from the the rest of the year's growth numbers of "0%", "1%", and "-4%".  But that "12%" is poor in comparison to the fourth quarter 2010 growth of "19%".

Remember last quarter John Donahoe touted a GMV increase of 16%?  Christmas shopping season is the biggest boost to commerce's bottom line.  Fourth quarter should have buried that "16%".  However fourth quarter pulled in a year to year increase of only "10%."  A significant decrease compared to the previous quarter's "16%" and "17%".

The GMV for vehicles was a dismal decrease of "-13%" quarter to quarter.  A significant fall from the "-4%" decrease of the second quarter.  Year to year Vehicle GMV growth was a decrease of "-3%".  eBay INC's vehicle market is dying.  Why eBay INC allows this degradation to continue is unknown.

"E-Commerce up > 23%!!"

John Donahoe became eBay INC CEO in March 2008, and will finish his fourth year of CEO stewardship in March 2012.  What is the stock trader's view?

At the start of John Donahoe's tenure, eBay INC's stock price was 29.84 (31 March 2008).  At the end of the trading day, eBay INC closed at 30.34. 

Trading today was frantic.  Total shares traded stood at 31,514,297, versus the average daily transaction volume of 10,863,900 shares.  Dropping eBay INC's stock price from 30.53 to 30.34.  The after hours price, that is transactions made after the Earnings Call, stands at 31.05.

eBay INC's official investor page, in the matter of eBay INC stock dividends declares:

Which means the average individual investor must 'buy low' and 'sell high' to materially profit from eBay INC stock.  Such an investor who bought on 31 March 2008 and sold today would have made fifty cents per share ($30.34 - $29.84).

Less transaction fees of course.

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" eBay Motors Parts and Accessories - This category saw very strong growth in December, coming in at a record-setting 57.6% y/y growth for ChannelAdvisor customers in the category."

Scot Wingo, CEO ChannelAdvisor

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EcommerceBytes To Censor Reader Comments

EcommerceByes To Censor Reader Comments ... NOT REALLY
31 December 2011
EventHorizon1984

Based solely on the teaser title of this piece, you may have felt the need to post a comment. 

Immediately. 

Keep that feeling in mind should you read the rest of this article.

David Steiner said in the EcommerceBytes article "Should EcommerceBytes Blogs Be Verified Only?" about future comments:

• "We still left open the option to post without becoming verified, but we're strongly considering making it mandatory to be AB-Verified to use our services."

Spam is the primary reason EcommerceBytes (formerly AuctionBytes) is considering the move toward requiring posters to verify themselves.

As Mr. Steiner put it:

• "I am the person who has to clean out the 200 or so spam comments left overnight, anything that puts another obstacle in the way of a spammer is, in my estimation, a good thing."

He closed with, "We are interested in your perspective".

Our collective answer is No.

The Spam Solution

While we empathize with the Spam problem, one of our associates deals with about 50 spam and link emails daily, Spam is not justification for potentially throttling down reader comments.

As an extreme example of a login blog, view the comments on ChannelAdvisor CEO Scot Wingo's eBay Strategies Blog article "Holiday 2011 Late December Update - E-Commerce up >23%!!".  The December 22nd article has zero comments.  A similar article on EcommerceBytes would have more than zero comments.

With the computer industry contacts that EcommerceBytes has available, Spam control should never be an issue.  Or an excuse.

The Improved Discussion Solution

Mr. Steiner stated:

• "I have also empirically observed that since we implemented AB-Verify, the level of discussion has improved. Users with a single ID tied to all of their comments often take a much more thoughtful approach to a discussion"

With respect, most here haven't seen much of a "much more thoughtful approach".  There are definitely less posts on average per article.  Giving the appearance of a more civil conversation.

The Merriam-Webster definition of empirical:

• "originating in or based on observation or experience"

The flip side of an empirical observation (emphasis mine):

• "relying on experience or observation alone often without due regard for system and theory"
• "capable of being verified or disproved by observation or experiment"

A user verification system does Not guarantee "a more thoughful approach to a discussion" elsewhere on the Internet.  One can find verified EcommerceBytes users, posting regularly on the Yahoo! eBay Message Board.  The level of thoughful commentary there is sparse.

There are other sordid examples of user verified comment sites, with odious posts from (as I understand it) people with verified EcommerceBytes accounts.

Quality posts depend on the quality of site moderation, not user verfication. 

David and Ina Steiner provide excellent site moderation.  User verification has nothing to do with the post quality.

The Problem With Verification

"I think people forget that business is war and the most competitive medium right now is social media", Richard Hillgrove

What does being EcommerceBytes verified mean?

David Steiner said:

• "If you aren't familiar with what is required to become AB-Verified, we're asking for one thing: a valid email address."

Verification means that account has an email address.  Everything else need not necessarily be factual.

You might ask, 'what about the IP address?', 'can't people be tracked through their IP address?'. 

Don't count on that IP being useful, or an indicator that a real person is attached to it.  As Mr. Steiner observed:

• "There are almost as many email services out there as there are proxy servers."

A "proxy server is a computer that offers a computer network service to allow clients to make indirect network connections to other network services." 

In other words, "they also hide the user's own IP address from the web sites they access through the proxy, they are sometimes also used to gain a degree of anonymity."

Any one, or any organization, can be anonymous.  An anonymous IP is helpful to individuals protective of their privacy.  But anonymity is critical to some businesses.

The BBC article "Fake forum comments are 'eroding' trust in the web" contained this blunt but understated passage:

• "Some firms have created tens of thousands of fake accounts to flood chat forums and skew debate."

The article "How big firms bash their rivals, in public and private" had this unkind passage:

• ""Sock puppetry" is what ensues when company stooges post multiple entries under assumed names, posing as members of the public, in order to boost the apparent popularity of a product."

It's a given that sock puppets will register.  They don't get paid if they don't post.  But does verification process keep out the "company stooges"?  Who by "eroding trust" are a detriment to EcommerceBytes.  Only Heaven and the Steiner's know.

However it is not a given that readership will register.  If "it is invaluable to have a readership that is "plugged-in" (David Steiner), perhaps it is worth considering that most EcommerceBytes posters don't bother with login's.

Epilogue

At the beginning of this article, we asked you to remember how you felt about commenting.

You can do that here by writing below, and sending it.  Period.

EcommenceBytes wants to implement a system where you:

1. Register with EcommerceBytes.
2. Wait for the approval email.
3. Login whenever you wish to make a comment.
4. Write the comment and send it.

If you're a regular poster, or sock puppet, registration is not a major pain.  

But if you are 'just passing through', or the occasional reader, or spur of the moment type poster, that is new fresh readership, will you be waiting around a day or two to say something?  Probably not.

Having watched and/or been a part of user verified sites since ARPANET and CompuServe, one social dynamic hasn't changed.  Eventually two major posting groups form.  Those who are passionate about a topic, and those paid to write comments.

Passion fades, but mercenaries are forever.

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"No one here is exactly what he appears."
G'Kar, Babylon 5

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References of interest:

• Fake forum comments are 'eroding' trust in the web, 24 November 2011
• How big firms bash their rivals, in public and private, 13 May 2011
• Will fake business blogs crash and burn?, 22 May 2008

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eBay INC 2011 Third Quarter Earnings Call Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers

eBay INC 2011 3rd Quarter Earnings Call Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers
20 October 2011
EventHorizon1984

 

eBay INC CEO John J. Donahoe lead eBay's Third Quarter Earnings Call with the bold statement, "Q3 was another strong quarter for our company.", while the mood on Wall Street, "EBAY left investors unimpressed," was less energetic.  Which leads to the routine question asked by small businesses on eBay, 'How did the Marketplaces section eBay.com do?'.

Well.                                  

Numbers from eBay's 10/19/2011 SEC 8-K filing show net total Marketplaces quarter to quarter revenue growth essentially dead.  Down from the previous quarter growth of "5%". 

Keep in mind that part of the second quarter growth of 5% can be attributed to eBay's 6 July 2011 additional fee on shipping costs.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 10/19/2011

Marketplace revenues are principally generated through fees paid by users of eBay.com.  The payees being the business who use eBay.com to sell products.

What of the number of products that eBay's less than 1% revenue growth came from?.

According to Medved.net eBay started the third quarter with over 138 million listings per day. 

The third quarter ended with approximately 152 million products.

If you were selling on eBay.com, were you using PayPal?

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 10/19/2011

The number of PayPal payments made was a health "6%", compared to the previous quarter's increase of "2%."  The PayPal payment volume however was down to "2%", compared to second quarter's "5%" increase.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 10/19/2011

According the eBay.com numbers, the "Take rate" has remained stable for the past year.  The third quarter "Take rate", that is the percentage of a PayPal transaction that Ebay INC keeps, stands at "3.78%."

What about eBay INC's Bill Me Later payment method? 

eBay INC reports Bill Me Later losses decreased and increased.  The Net charge-off rate has improved slightly to "4.3" from the second quarter's "4.4%."  But the 90-day delinquency rate has risen to "2.6%", compared to the previous quarter's "2.2%."

With payment transaction losses remaining more or less stable, it remains to be seen why eBay INC continues to increase the amount of funds held from eBay's customers.  Going from 2010 fourth quarter's $2,550,731,000 to this quarter's $3,295,115,000.  Yes, that's 3.29 Billion dollars.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 10/19/2011

What about the continuing buyer and seller claims that there is less merchandise on eBay.com.  How deep is eBay.com's product selection?  Let's look at the value of merchandise sold.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc - 8-K - 10/19/2011

According to eBay INC in their 8-K statement, Gross Merchandising Volume (GMV) represents the "Total value of all successfully closed items between users on eBay Marketplaces trading platforms during the quarrter, regardless of whether the buyer and seller actually consummated the transaction."

GMV quarter to quarter growth is essentially dead.  Third quarter shows less than one percent movement, compared to second quarters "1%."   And what of John Donahoe touting a GMV increase of 16%?  It's the year to year increase.  And this year's GMV, $14,666 million, is coasting downward off of eBay's record 2010 year end GMV of $15,039 million.

The GMV for vehicles decreased "-4%" quarter to quarter.  A significant fall from the "9%" increase of the second quarter.  Year to year Vehicle GMV growth is also essentially dead.

"EBay is still best known as a discount flea market retailer."

John Donahoe became eBay INC CEO in March 2008, and concluded his third year of CEO stewardship in March 2011.  Has there been progress for eBay.com under CEO John Donaohe?

It appears from the above metrics that eBay sellers in aggregate have had their say in the matter. 

Here's the non-seller stock market view. 

At the start of John Donahoe's tenure, eBay INC's stock price was 29.84 (31 March 2008).  Between then and now, the stock reached a top price of 35.35.  It is currently trading at 32.14. 

Trading was mildly frantic today with current volume at 25,643,763 versus the average daily transaction volume of 14,794,700 shares.

According to eBay INC's official investor page, in the matter of eBay INC stock dividends:

Which means for the average individual investor to materially benefit from eBay INC stock, they must sell and/or buy the stock.  In other words, 'buy low, sell high', short, long, et al.

Over the three plus years the eBay INC Pop & Mom investor made $5.51 per share, or posted a 19% return on investment.  Assuming they sold their shares when the stock peaked.

Then there's the competition.

Amazon closed at $71.30 on 31 March 2008.  Amazon stock is currently at $233.61.  Meaning the Amazon Mom & Pop investor would make $162.31 selling their stock now.  If we have our sums right, that's a 227% return on investment.

$5.51 versus $162.31.  Hmmm.  The difference between buying a cup of coffee at Starbucks or an iPod from Apple.  As a side note:

• Starbucks
• 31 March 2008  $17.50
• 20 October 2011  $40.99

• Apple
• 31 March 2008  $143.50
• 20 October 2011  $395.31

With the tepid response to eBay INC's stock price over the past three plus years, there is possible good news for CEO John Donahoe, regarding Amazon's Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Call scheduled for 25 October 2011.  It may never happen. 

Harold Camping is proclaiming, again, that the World will end tomorrow.

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Related articles:

Amazon eBay 2011 Earnings Call Pre-Game Tale of the Tape

eBay INC Stock Price During CEO John Donahoe's Tenure

/*

Steve Jobs (1955-2011)

“We do no market research. We don’t hire consultants. The only consultants I’ve ever hired in my 10 years is one firm to analyze Gateway’s retail strategy so I would not make some of the same mistakes they made [when launching Apple's retail stores]. But we never hire consultants, per se. We just want to make great products."

"You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them. By the time you get it built, they’ll want something new."

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eBay INC Received $131 Million U.S. Tax Refund

eBay INC Received $131 Million U.S. Tax Refund
31 August 2011
EventHorizon1984

According to Reuters, eBay CEO John Donahoe was one of "Twenty-five of the 100 highest paid U.S. CEOs earned more last year than their companies paid in federal income tax."

Specifically:

"eBay whose CEO John Donahoe made $12.4 million, but which reported a $131 million refund on its 2010 current U.S. taxes."

While many John Donahoe fans will "cheer" this article, we note the article and study are flawed.  In the case of eBay INC, what is left out are 2010 taxes paid.

Consider this; most of our U.S. readers received 2010 tax refunds.  But it's a refund of excess taxes paid.

People interested in eBay INCs 2010 finances can reference the following:

• eBay INC 10-K Annual Report, 28 January 2011
• eBay INC 8-K/A Results of Operations and Financial Condition, Financial Statements and Exhibits, 20 January 2011
• eBay INC 8-K Results of Operations and Financial Condition, Financial Statements and Exhibits, 19 January 2011

Not that eBay INC CEO John Donahoe deserves praise.

• eBay stock price (31 March 2008) when John Donahoe became eBay CEO - $29.87
• eBay stock price (31 August 2011) - $30.87

• Amazon stock price (31 March 2008) - $71.30
• Amazon stock price (31 August 2011) - $215.23

Unless you're an Amazon investor.

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"We’re very comfortable being misunderstood. We’ve had lots of practice."
Jeff Bezos, Amazon CEO

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Amazon eBay 2011 Earnings Call Pre-Game Tale of the Tape

Amazon eBay 2011 Earnings Call Pre-Game Tale of the Tape
12 July 2011
EventHorizon1984

You bought eBay or Amazon stock on the hype that they were excellent long-term growth investments.  But is it all hype?

With Amazon's 2011 Earnings Call scheduled for July 26th, and eBay's on July 20th, it's a good time to look at performance history.

As a consummate investor, you know both stocks do not pay dividends.  eBay INC states bluntly to investors:

No dividends means you live and die by share price.  The average investor must trade ('buy low, sell high') shares to materially benefit from eBay or Amazon stock.

How are both stocks performing?

eBay's current CEO John Donahoe, took control of the company on 31 March 2008.  Now in his fourth year, under his new new three year plan, here's the score:

Chart from Yahoo! Finance, 31 March 2008 - 11 July 2011.

$29.84 31 March 2008 - $32.91 12 July 2011

eBay is currently trading at 32.26.

During the same period, here's the score of competitor Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos:

Chart from Yahoo! Finance, 31 March 2008 - 11 July 2011.

$71.30 31 March 2008 - $212.55 12 July 2011

Amazon is currently trading at 211.23.

In case you're wondering, here's what the two charts look like combined:

Chart from Yahoo! Finance, 31 March 2008 - 11 July 2011.  eBay in red, Amazon in blue.

You may ask what about return on investment, etal?

Here's the tale of the tape using Yahoo! Finance:

So how is Your  investment?

/*

"The whole put and call biz is about short term gambling on stock prices....the bets being made should rarely, if ever, be used by long term investors to determine the long term value of a stock."
Itspostingtime  

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18 July 2011

Corrected Amazon Earnings Call schedule.

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And Yet Another Google Merchant Center Product Feed Search Change.

And Yet Another Google Merchant Center Product Feed Search Change
11 July 2011
EventHorizon1984

A scant two months after an earlier Google atttibute deadline, comes more Google "suggested" (read Required) changes to product feeds.

 

Google Product Search: Important Changes to Feeds Specification and Program Policies

Monday, July 11, 2011 2:28 PM

Hello,

Thank you for participating in Google Product Search. We are reaching out to you to inform you about important changes we're making to our Product Search required attributes and Program Policies. All merchants will be affected by these changes.

We are now requiring a new set of basic required attributes, as well as attributes which are required for certain product categories and target countries. Please read the new Feeds Specification carefully to determine how your data feed will need to change at http://www.google.com/support/merchants/bin/answer.py?answer=188494

You can find a summary of the new requirements in table form at http://www.google.com/support/merchants/bin/answer.py?answer=1344057

Starting September 22, accounts that do not comply with the new requirements will be suspended. For more information about how we will enforce the new policies, visit this Help Center article http://www.google.com/support/merchants/bin/answer.py?answer=188484

Please update your account settings or data feeds as soon as possible to ensure that you are complying with these new requirements by the dates specified above. For more information about these changes, please visit our Google Merchant blog at http://googlemerchantblog.blogspot.com/2011/07/important-changes-to-google-product.html.

Sincerely,

The Google Product Search Team

© 2011 Google Inc. 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043

 

For those who send product information to Google, the above Google missive means spend hundreds of man-hours changing your database.  Again.

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"Even if I change it still feels like dying."
The Doctor, Doctor Who

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Harold Camping At The End Of The World

Harold Camping At The End Of The World
21 May 2011
EventHorizon1984

The buzz around the planet is New Zealand is still with us.  So is Harold Camping.

We sincerely believe he will go on as before.  One reason is provided in the AP article "Apocalypse believers await end, skeptics carry on":

• "Camping, an 89-year-old retired civil engineer who has built a multi-million-dollar nonprofit ministry based on his apocalyptic prediction"
• "In 2009, the nonprofit reported in IRS filings that it received $18.3 million in donations, and had assets of more than $104 million, including $34 million in stocks or other publicly traded securities."

Very Wall Street.

/*

"For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some have coveted, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows."
1 Timothy 6:10

"Baka Bakka."
Ruri Hoshino, Martian Successor Nadesico

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Sony Online Entertainment Hacked

Sony Online Entertainment Hacked
3 May 2011
EventHorizon1984

Nothing like having a hacking problem surface.  A week late.  As noted in the Guardian article "PlayStation Network hack: why it took Sony seven days to tell the world."

Between then and now, Sony had this to say:

SECURITY UPDATE

As previously announced, we have been conducting an ongoing, thorough investigation stemming from the cyber attack in April and promised to notify you should there be any changes to the situation. 

A press release was issued today outlining these details. We will promptly send a customer service notification via email to all of our impacted account holders whose customer data may have been stolen as a result of an illegal intrusion on our systems. This information was discovered less than 24 hours ago and in response, we took down our services until we could verify their security.

SOE is committed to delivering secure, stable and entertaining games for players of all ages and we're working around the clock to ensure this situation is resolved as quickly as possible. We deeply regret the inconvenience this has caused and appreciate your continued patience and feedback.

Sincerely,
Sony Online Entertainment

Of course now, about a week later Monday (5/2/2011), Sony decided to rectify the situation:

Sony Says 25 Million More Accounts Hacked

"The data breach comes on top of the 77 million PlayStation accounts"

"Sony said that it shut service Monday morning to Sony Online Entertainment games, which are available on personal computers, Facebook and the Playstation 3 console.  Its most popular games include "EverQuest," "Free Realms" and "DC Universe Online."

Of course now, about a week later Tuesday (5/3/2011), Sony decided clarifiy the situation with this email:

Important Customer Notification

Tuesday, May 3, 2011 12:25 AM

From: "Sony Online Entertainment" <Sony_Online_Entertainment@soe.innovyx.net>

Customer Service Notification May 2, 2011 Dear Valued Sony Online Entertainment Customer: Our ongoing investigation of illegal intrusions into Sony Online Entertainment systems has discovered that hackers may have obtained personal customer information from SOE systems. We are today advising you that the personal information you provided us in connection with your SOE account may have been stolen in a cyber-attack. Stolen information includes, to the extent you provided it to us, the following: name, address (city, state, zip, country), email address, gender, birthdate, phone number, login name and hashed password. Customers outside the United States should be advised that we further discovered evidence that information from an outdated database from 2007 containing approximately 12,700 non-US customer credit or debit card numbers and expiration dates (but not credit card security codes) and about 10,700 direct debit records listing bank account numbers of certain customers in Germany, Austria, Netherlands and Spain may have also been obtained and we will be notifying each of those customers promptly. There is no evidence that our main credit card database was compromised. It is in a completely separate and secured environment. We had previously believed that SOE customer data had not been obtained in the cyber-attacks on the company, but on May 1st we concluded that SOE account information may have been stolen and we are notifying you as soon as possible. We apologize for the inconvenience caused by the attack and as a result, we have: 1. Temporarily turned off all SOE game services; 2. Engaged an outside, recognized security firm to conduct a full and complete investigation into what happened; and 3. Quickly taken steps to enhance security and strengthen our network infrastructure to provide you with greater protection of your personal information. We greatly appreciate your patience, understanding and goodwill as we do whatever it takes to resolve these issues as quickly and efficiently as practicable. For your security, we encourage you to be especially aware of email, telephone, and postal mail scams that ask for personal or sensitive information. Sony will not contact you in any way, including by email, asking for your credit card number, social security number or other personally identifiable information. If you are asked for this information, you can be confident Sony is not the entity asking. When SOE™'s services are fully restored, we strongly recommend that you log on and change your password. Additionally, if you use your Station or SOE game account name or password for other unrelated services or accounts, we strongly recommend that you change them, as well. To protect against possible identity theft or other financial loss, we encourage you to remain vigilant, to review your account statements and to monitor your credit reports. We are providing the following information for those who wish to consider it: U.S. residents are entitled under U.S. law to one free credit report annually from each of the three major credit bureaus. To order your free credit report, visit www.annualcreditreport.com or call toll-free (877) 322-8228. We have also provided names and contact information for the three major U.S. credit bureaus below. At no charge, U.S. residents can have these credit bureaus place a "fraud alert" on your file that alerts creditors to take additional steps to verify your identity prior to granting credit in your name. This service can make it more difficult for someone to get credit in your name. Note, however, that because it tells creditors to follow certain procedures to protect you, it also may delay your ability to obtain credit while the agency verifies your identity. As soon as one credit bureau confirms your fraud alert, the others are notified to place fraud alerts on your file. Should you wish to place a fraud alert, or should you have any questions regarding your credit report, please contact any one of the agencies listed below. Experian: 888-397-3742; www.experian.com; P.O. Box 9532, Allen, TX 75013 Equifax: 800-525-6285; www.equifax.com; P.O. Box 740241, Atlanta, GA 30374-0241 TransUnion: 800-680-7289; www.transunion.com; Fraud Victim Assistance Division, P.O. Box 6790, Fullerton, CA 92834-6790 You may wish to visit the web site of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission at www.consumer.gov/idtheft or reach the FTC at (877) 382-4357 or 600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20580 for further information about how to protect yourself from identity theft. Your state Attorney General may also have advice on preventing identity theft, and you should report instances of known or suspected identity theft to law enforcement, your State Attorney General, and the FTC. For North Carolina residents, the Attorney General can be contacted at 9001 Mail Service Center, Raleigh, NC 27699-9001; telephone (877) 566-7226; or www.ncdoj.gov. For Maryland residents, the Attorney General can be contacted at 200 St. Paul Place, 16th Floor, Baltimore, MD 21202; telephone: (888) 743-0023; or www.oag.state.md.us. We are committed to helping our customers protect their personal data and we will provide a complimentary offering to assist users in enrolling in identity theft protection services and/or similar programs. The implementation will be at a local level and further details will be made available shortly in regions in which such programs are commonly utilized. We thank you for your patience as we complete our investigation of this incident, and we regret any inconvenience. Our teams are working around the clock on this, and services will be restored as soon as possible. Sony takes information protection very seriously and will continue to work to ensure that additional measures are taken to protect personally identifiable information. Providing quality and secure entertainment services to our customers is our utmost priority. Please contact us at (866) 436-6698 should you have any additional questions. Sincerely, Sony Online Entertainment LLC

THIS IS A CUSTOMER SERVICE NOTIFICATION. SOE Privacy Policy | SOE Terms of Service www.soe.com

Sony Online Entertainment LLC 8928 Terman Court - San Diego, CA 92121

 

Somehow those affected, 100 million or so, may not be getting that warm and fuzzy feeling about the situation.

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"I've got a bad feeling about him."
Dr. Frank Poole, 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

"I have a very bad feeling about this."
Luke Skywalker, Star Wars (1977)

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eBay INC 2011 First Quarter Earnings Call Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers

eBay INC 2011 First Quarter Earnings Call Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers
27 April 2011
EventHorizon1984

eBay INC "is showing signs of progress", according to the Wall Street Journal.  Which brings up the quarterly question asked by many small businesses on eBay, 'How did the Marketplaces section eBay.com do?'.

Well.                                  

Numbers from eBay's 04/17/2011 SEC 8-K filing, show net total Marketplaces revenue growth up an anemic "2%" from the previous quarter.  Down from the previous quarter growth of "6%". 

Marketplaces revenue is up "10%", compared to the poorly performing first quarter of 2010.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc (eBay) - 8-k - 4/27/2011

Marketplace revenues are principally generated through fees paid by users of eBay.com.  That is the business who use eBay.com to sell products.

Here is another eBay Marketplaces revenue chart.

eBay shows an anemic "2%" current quarter versus prior quarter increase. 

There is a robust "12%" current quarter to prior year quarter increase.  Compared to the "13%" increase of a year ago, there appears to be some slow down in year to year revenue.

And what of the number of products that eBay's "2%" came from?.

According to Medved.net eBay started the first quarter with close to 123 million listings per day. 

The first quarter numbers peaked at close to 134 million listings.  The number of products are down from the fourth quarter peak of 142 million.

If you were selling on eBay.com, were you using PayPal?

Edgar Online - eBay Inc (eBay) - 8-k - 4.27/2011

The number of PayPal payments made and the amount of those PayPal payments, were down compared to fourth quarter's "18%" and "20%."  A tepid increase of "1%" and "2%" respectively.

According the eBay.com numbers, "Transaction revenue rate" has remained stable for the past year.  The current quarter Marketplace loss rate, part of which includes fraud, stands at "3.45%".  Compared to VISA, who reported a fraud rate of "$5 per $10,000" in 2005.  Which is 0.05%.

What about eBay's growing Bill Me Later payment method? 

eBay reports Bill Me Later losses are decreasing.  The Net charge-off rate has slid to "4.86%", and the 90-day delinquency rate has dropped to "2.16%". 

The declining fraud rates are interesting given eBay has increased the amount of funds held from eBay's customers.  Going from fourth quarter's $2,550,731,000 to $2,746,079,000.

What about seller and buyer claims that there is less merchandise on eBay.com.  Have products moved off eBay.com?

Edgar Online - eBay Inc (eBay) - 8-k - 4/27/2011

There was a quarter to quarter Gross Merchandising Volume (GMV) decrease of "(4%), excluding vehicles.  But a year to year increase of "8%."

GMV represents "Total value of all successfully closed items between users on eBay Marketplaces trading platforms during the quarter, regardless of whether the buyer and seller actually consummated the transaction."

The GMV for vehicles increased "7%" quarter to quarter.  A significant improvement from the "(11%)" decline of the previous quarter. 

John Donahoe became eBay CEO in March 2008, and concluded his third year of CEO stewardship in March 2011.  Has there been progress for eBay.com under CEO John Donaohe?

While eBay sellers will continue to make that call, here's the non-seller stock market view. 

At the start of John Donahoe's tenure, eBay INC's stock price was 29.84 (31 March 2008).  Between then and now, the stock reached a top price of 35.35.  It is currently trading at 34.03.

According to eBay INC's official investor page, in the matter of eBay INC stock dividends:

Which means for the average investor to materially benefit from eBay INC stock, they must sell and/or buy the stock.  In other words, 'buy low, sell high', short, stock options, et al.

In three years the eBay Pop & Mom investor made $5.51 per share or 19% return on investment.  Had they sold when the stock peaked.

Then there's the competition.

Amazon closed at 71.30 on 31 March 2008, and in the same three year period peaked at 197.80.  Amazon closed today at 197.00.  Meaning the Amazon Mom & Pop investor made $126.50 per share or 177% return on investment.

Hmmm.  $5.51 versus $126.50.  Perhaps we're not understanding the Wall Street insider view.

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"Amazon's a very competitive company, and I think they are a very good competitor, and we take them very, very seriously. I think the proof will be in the pudding. You know, we are still looking for signs of momentum, and so far, they have not gotten traction."
Meg Whitman, eBay CEO, 31 May 1999

"Amazon can be successful, and eBay can be successful too."
John Donahoe, eBay CEO, June 2010

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A Tale of Four eBay Sellers

A Tale of Four eBay Sellers
14 February 2011 
Valentine's Day Edition
EventHorizon1984

While scanning the various blog sites, one of us came across this interesting note.

Where CohibaStore.com, a PowerSellersUnite regular member, states:

• "Due to some moron at PayPal, or better, the morons at PayPal, I am unable to withdraw funds or use the PP debit card for a few weeks."
• "I hung up the phone and promptly shut down my ebay stores, closed all the listings and took the rest of the day off."

A week later one of his eBay Stores remains empty.

You might be asking, "why the interest in this seller?".  He happens to be one of the sellers in our eNA (eBay Noise Aggregate) study.  Where we quantified the eBay 'store to core' impact on sellers.

Since we mentioned "Four eBay Sellers", "submitted for your approval" are four sellers of the hundred and nineteen sellers studied.

1. clact (5209), member since Feb-25-02
2. cleggandco (24352), member since Aug-20-02
3. oldspartantrader (7696), member since Feb-28-05
4. z50com (10482), member since Jun-25-00

These sellers are well known successful eBay PowerSellers with hundreds of listings.  And with hundreds/thousands of posts on various venues. 

Or at least that's the way it was in 2008/2009.

1.  "Are you trying to cheer me up?" 
Captain John Sheridan, Babylon 5

Clact, better known as Marty on the eBay Stores Discussion Board, and eBay Voices participant, currently has these two listings on eBay.

A set of two listings that has been essentially unchanged since 2010.  Although it's been presumed that he is off doing other eBay related things.

2.  "I'll be back." 
Terminator, The Terminator (1968)

Cleggandco, also known at CohibaStore on the PowerSellersUnite forums, had this to say in 2007.

• "My sales are currently 90% ebay, 5% my web store and 5% blujay."
• "Most importantly you need to build a reputation. You cannot do this overnight. You need that reputation to help spread your reputation via word of mouth. It's still the best form of advertising."

Today he has an Amazon outlet, higher total sales compared to 2010, and for the moment no products on eBay.  BUT that's temporary.  

• "Of the 300+ ebay listings we used to run, we have perhaps 50 that will get re-listed when they fix it. I will continue to suck money out of their system and ride out the decline until it's completely unproductive - as everyone should be doing."
• "Customer service continues to be dreadful. Even as Gold Top Rated Power seller, getting an answer, or even making contact requires herculean effort. I'll bet cash money it will be this continued failing that finally drives me off from selling on ebay, rather than fees, idiot buyers or moronic rules."

Will this $10K a month (on eBay) seller remain on eBay?  Shrug.

3. "That wizard is just a crazy old man." 
Uncle Owen, Star Wars (1977)

Oldspartantrader or Carl, has been a fixture on the eBay Stores Discussion Board for years.  

Currently he is NARU, having left eBay on his terms in 2010, opting for retirement.

4.  "You can count on my steel." 
Unknown warrior, Army of Darkness (1992).

z50com also known as John, is a noted aerospace tool seller.  He's a regular poster on the Yahoo! EBAY Message Board and AuctionBytes.  In 2007 he had this to say:

• "Ebay works great for me. Most weeks I sell 90-100% of my listings. Prices for my products have never been higher."
• "I hate hearing all the whining from unsuccessful sellers, adapt or go out of business. The strongest will survive, I have."

Depending on the source, his "90-100%" sell through was coupled with anywhere from $2K to $10K a week in gross sales.  Making him at the time the largest, or one of the largest, in this small group of four sellers.

His current selling status has changed dramatically from those prior years.

z50com still sells on eBay in a smaller capacity, but appears to supplement his income through a part or full time job.

"What is the moral?  Must be a moral." 
Comedy Tonight, A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Forum (1966)

If there is any moral to this "Tale of Four eBay Sellers," it might be the comment about eBay's treatment of Calvin Klein, where we rhetorically asked:

• "if eBay is willing to show such tepid support for a $6 billion dollars in sales a year corporation, how do you think eBay treats the much smaller sellers?"

Now we know.

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"He's dead. I'm crippled. You're lost."
Flight Officer David Campbell, The Longest Day (1962)

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eBay Noise Aggregate (eNA)

• The eBay Noise Aggregate (eNA) - Measuring The Impact Of Store To Core
• The eBay Noise Aggregate (eNA) Redux

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eBay INC 2010 Fourth Quarter Earnings Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers

eBay INC 2010 Fourth Quarter Earnings Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers
20 January 2011
EventHorizon1984

eBay INC posted  mixed results for the fourth quarter of 2010 on the 19th.  And once more we look at this quarter attempting to answer the question that many small businesses on eBay ponder, 'How did the Marketplaces section eBay.com do?'.

Well.                                  

Numbers from eBay's 10/20/2010 SEC 8-K filing, show net total Marketplaces revenue growth up "8%" from the previous quarter.  An improvement from two consecutive quarters of "1%" growth. 

But Marketplaces revenue is only up "4%" from the fourth quarter of 2009.  Versus "15%" from fourth quarter 2008 to fourth quarter 2009.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc (eBay) - 8-k - 1/19/2011

Marketplace revenues are principally generated through fees paid by users of eBay.com.  Principally business who use eBay.com to sell products.  The more a seller lists, and/or the more a seller sells, the more Marketplaces revenue eBay.com generates.

Now look at just the Marketplaces revenue.  That is revenue derived from fees on sales.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc (eBay) - 8-k - 1/19/2011

During the busiest shopping quarter of the year, eBay shows a "6%" current quarter versus prior quarter increase.  Up from the "0%" change of the third quarter.

There is a "3%" current quarter to prior year quarter increase.  Compared to the "17%" of a year ago, that "3%" could use some improvement.

You can see eBay's "6%" in action by viewing the number of products that were available during the fourth quarter shopping season.

According to Medved.net eBay started the fourth quarter with a little over 140 million listings per day.  Like the third quarter, the fourth quarter number of listings peaked at 142 million.

By the end of December the counts dived to 122 million.

In other words, millions of products were placed on eBay.com and millions were sold, resulting in eBay's revenue increase.

If you were selling on eBay.com, were you using PayPal?

Edgar Online - eBay Inc (eBay) - 8-k - 1/19/2011

The number of PayPal payments made and the amount of those PayPal payments, increased "18%" and "20%" respectively.

Edgar Online - eBay Inc (eBay) - 8-k - 1/19/2011

According the eBay.com numbers, the "Transaction revenue rate" has remained stable for the past year.  The current quarter Marketplace loss rate, part of which includes fraud, stands at 3.45%.  Compared to VISA, who reported a fraud rate of "$5 per $10,000" in 2005.  Which is 0.05%.

Should sellers be concerned about buyers using eBay's Bill Me Later payment method? 

According to eBay the Bill Me Later losses are decreasing.  The Net charge-off rate has gone from 11.14% to 6.07%, and the 90-day delinquency rate has dropped to 2.37% from 4.20%. 

Businesses in general pass costs on to their customers, and in the case of eBay to their sellers.  Sellers will have to make their own determination on whether the declining loss rates indicates eBay is containing costs, or passing them on to the businesses that use eBay.

What about seller and buyer claims that there is less merchandise on eBay.com.  That is, have products moved off eBay.com?

Edgar Online - eBay Inc (eBay) - 8-k - 1/19/2011

Businesses traditionally load inventory onto eBay during the fourth quarter shopping season.  There was a quarter to quarter Gross Merchandising Volume (GMV) increase of 19%, and a current quarter versus prior year quarter increase of 6%.  Excluding vehicles.

GMV represents "Total value of all successfully closed items between users on eBay Marketplaces trading platforms during the quarter, regardless of whether the buyer and seller actually consummated the transation."

Keep in the GMV represents the value of the items sold.  As stated earlier the actual number of items available on a daily basis during the fourth quarter ranged from 142 million to 122 million.  Comparable to counts during the third quarter.

The GMV for vehicles declined "-11%" quarter to quarter, and "-8%" quarter to prior year quarter.  The second straight quarter of declines, with declines in three of the four 2010 quarters.

Auction seller inventory now represents 38% of eBay.com's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume).  A decrease from the 40% of the previous quarter.

Has there been progress for eBay under CEO John Donaohe?

John Donahoe became eBay CEO in March 2008.  He wraps up the third year of CEO stewardship and his second year of his newer "Three-Year Revival Plan" in March 2011.

The New York Times said about eBay's fourth quarter:

• "Revenue in the period rose 5 percent"
• "Revenue from eBay’s marketplace business, which is its largest unit and includes its namesake Web site, rose 4 percent"

Excluding vehicle related sales, the GMV (sales) current quarter versus prior year quarter increased 6%.

According to Martin Adamo, a well known eBay entrepreneur (clact) and eBay Voices member, the economy has something to do with eBay's numbers.

Then again the Wall Street Journal said of year to year online sales:

• "Online holiday sales in the 56 days through Dec. 26 rose 13%"

Perhaps businesses on eBay should ask why in aggregate they had to settle for John Donahoe's 6% increase in sales, when the rest of the internet was doing 13%.

/*

"The minute our community stops talking is the minute I worry.  Because their opinions, constructive criticism or praise, stem from passion."
John Donahoe, eBay CEO, 18 April 2008

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eBay INC 2010 Third Quarter Earnings Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers

eBay INC 2010 Third Quarter Earnings Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers
21 October 2010
EventHorizon1984

eBay INC posted strong number for the third quarter of 2010.  But like last time, we look again this quarter into what many small businesses on eBay ponder, 'How did the Marketplaces section eBay.com do?'.

Well.

Numbers from eBay's 10/20/2010 SEC 8-K filing, show net total Marketplaces revenue growth is up an anemic "1%" from the previous quarter.  Two consecutive quarters of "1%" growth.

Revenue generated principally through fees paid by users of eBay.com.  The more a seller lists, the more a seller sells, the more Marketplaces revenue eBay.com generates.  Of course when sellers slow down, so does eBay.com.

According to Medved.net eBay started the third quarter with about 130,400,000 listings per day. 

The number of listings peaked at 142 million.  Up 8.9% from the beginning of the quarter.

Then settled back to 140,300,000 listings.  Up 7.6% from the beginning of the quarter.

There are strong increases in the number of products available for sale, yet total Marketplaces (principally eBay.com) revenue increased only "1%".

Now take a look at just the Marketplaces revenue.  That is revenue derived from fees on seller sales.

That's "0%" current quarter versus prior quarter.  Down from the "1%" increase of the second quarter.  Abet up from the -4% decrease of the first quarter.

That "0%" means in aggregate, sellers are experiencing virtually no increase (or decrease) in sales on eBay.com.

Perhaps this point is not missed by The Wall Street Journal.

• "on the back of a 0.5% increase in revenue"
• "Some industry insiders were quick to note eBay's marketplace performance continues to lag the overall U.S. e-commerce market, where retail sales are expected to rise almost 13% to $152 billion this year, according to research group eMarketer."                                 

And a point definitely not missed by eBay INC, as shortly before the the end of the third quarter President of eBay Marketplaces Lorrie Norrington was terminated.

If you were selling on eBay.com, were you using PayPal?

The number of PayPal payments made and the amount of those PayPal payments, increased 7% and 5% respectively.

With this increase in PayPal activity, some eBay.com sellers have reported increases in fraudulent transactions.

According the eBay.com's numbers, the "Transaction revenue rate" has remained stable for the past year.  The current quarter Marketplace loss rate, part of which includes fraud, stands at 3.57%.

Compared to VISA, who reported a fraud rate of "$5 per $10,000" in 2005.  Which is 0.05%.

eBay.com sellers considering Bill Me Later payments, should look closely at those numbers.

What about seller and buyer claims that there is less merchandise on eBay.com.  That is, have products moved off eBay.com?

The hemorrhaging of sellers inventory appears to have slowed to "0%", compared to last quarters -6% decrease.  However car sellers have "-1%" less inventory on eBay.com than the previous quarter.

Auction seller inventory now represents 40% of eBay.com's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume).  A decrease of 1% from the previous quarter.

With the start of the Christmas shopping quarter, we're anticipating PayPal eBay INC to set new revenue records.  It remains to be seen if small business or eBay.com can exceed the pace of last season.

/*

"I'm still looking for evidence the turnaround is taking hold. I haven't seen that yet."
Scot Wing, CEO ChannelAdvisor INC

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Christmas Time Is Here

Christmas Time Is Here
24 December 2010
EventHorizon1984

MasterCard reported "During the period October 31 to December 24, U.S. consumers spent an estimated $36.4 billion, a 15.4% year-on-year increase over the 2009 holiday season" for eCommerce sales.  What portion of this increase can be attributed to small businesses operating online was not reported.  However in aggregate, this is excellent news for online sellers.

Not that there wasn't money to be made by small businesses selling one of a kind items on eBay.  Like many previous eBay monetary Christmas shopping seasons, something unique turned up for sale on the site.  The $79.90 Steve Jobs action figure made many sellers happy with it's eventual top price of $2,500.  Before Apple told eBay, 'No.'

While there is a practical aspect to conducting transactions for money, we would hope that the MBA greed need subsides tomorrow.

Taking a quiet respite with family and friends. 

Enjoying the feeling of harmony in the air.

"Priceless."

 

/*

"Have a Holly Jolly Christmas"
Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer (1964)

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Meg Whitman Governor Memorabilia For Sale On eBay November 3rd

Meg Whitman Governor Campaign Memorabilia For Sale On eBay November 3rd
31 October 2010 
Halloween Edition
EventHorizon1984

 

With the Meg Whitman for California Governor campaign spending over $160 million, most of it hers all from eBay seller fees, one might think the milk from the cash cow stops flowing when the voting concludes on November 2 2010.  Except for the extensive after campaign clean up spending, that would be the case for most elections.  But we are talking about the loved or despised ex-CEO of eBay Margaret Whitman.  With a small army of eBay sellers who know opportunity is knocking.

Think of it.  Tens of millions of dollars spent on signs, buttons, stickers, leaflets, notepads, pens, clothing, ballons, napkins, identification badges, tickets, photos, autographs, and other campaign trinkets.  Given away FREE by the Meg Whitman for Governor organization. Free memorabilia, sometimes carted away in bulk after campaign events by eBay sellers.  Free memorabilia that can be listed for free on eBay.

And did we forget to mention the potential millions in illegal sales of rips from Meg Whitman campaign television ads?

If you're an eBay seller, don't you miss this golden multi-million dollar sales opportunity.

November 3rd, eBay.  Be there, Aloha.

/*

"called me a whore, they've called me a liar, they've called me a Nazi"
Meg Whitman, 26 October 2010

"a monkey could drive this train"
Meg Whitman, as train driving eBay CEO, circa 1998-2008

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eBay Myth Conceptions About Alibaba and the Forty Thieves

eBay Myth Conceptions About Alibaba and the Forty Thieves
29 August 2010
EventHorizon1984

When eCommerce company Alibaba.com purchased Vendio Services (June 2010) and eBay third party provider Auctiva (August 2010), there was the usual buzz.  But it was less about Alibaba's CEO David Wei stating "The U.S. is the top priority in our investment list" and more about the "Alibaba and the Forty Thieves" meme.

This is a very pervasive meme.  For example:

• AuctionBytes - "Let's give them all to Alibaba and the forty million thieves and let them sell on Alibaba's new site."
• TameBay - "Alibaba and the Forty Thieves ?"
• eBay Forum - "Would that be the story of AliBaba and the Forty THIEVES ?.."

Users of the "Alibaba and the Forty Thieves" meme have the popular conception that it's Alibaba AND HIS Forty Thieves.  As it turns out it's a misconception*.

* Since we're dealing with myths, the popular phrase "Myth Conceptions" is a steal homage to the copyrighted work of the late Robert Asprin.  A book published in 1980 titled, "Myth Conceptions."

The meme of "Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves" might be from the 1944 movie of the same name.  Which is described as "A boy prince, raised by forty thieves."  It might be the cartoon Arabian Knights (1968-1969).

Or simply it's a straight name association used by people who know the name of the story, but have never read the original work.

Speaking of which "The Story of 'Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves" from "Stories from the Thousand and One Nights" (1909) is available at Bartleby.com.

We know in this tale:

• "'Ali Baba married a woman as poor as himself, and lived by cutting wood"
• "‘Ali Baba expected a dark, dismal cavern, but was surprised to see a well-lighted and spacious chamber, lighted from an opening at the top of the rock, and filled with all sorts of provisions, rich bales of silk, embroideries, and valuable tissues, piled upon one another, gold and silver ingots in great heaps, and money in bags. The sight of all these riches made him suppose that this cave must have been occupied for ages by robbers, who had succeeded one another."
• "‘Ali Baba went boldly into the cave, and collected as much of the gold coin"

We meet Marjaneh:

• "Marjaneh, a clever slave-girl, who was fruitful in inventions to meet the most difficult circumstances"
• said 'Ali Baba to Marjaneh, "I leave the matter to your wit and skilful devices."

Who gives The Bride a run for the body count.

The tale ends with:

• "Some years later he carried his son to the cave and taught him the secret, which he handed down to his posterity, who, using their good fortune with moderation, lived in great honour and splendour till they were visited by the terminator of delights and the separator of companions."

The story is not 'Ali Baba and his forty thieves, but 'Ali Baba and the encounter with forty thieves.

However from a 21st century legal perspective, 'Ali Baba taking property from thieves is theft.  Paradoxically such an act is considered justice.  More so considering the "Forty Thieves" were dealt with by 'Ali Baba's proxy (Marjaneh) in a way appropriate to the legal code of the time.

Still the 'Ali Baba meme is rather powerful.  Although as the title of the article Alibaba and the eBay Thieves demonstrates, it may not mean what you think it means.

/*

"Sometimes bad guys are the only good guys you get."
Parker, Leverage

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PayPal and the International Credit Card Wars

PayPal and the International Credit Card Wars
18 August 2010
EventHorizon1984

Considering the events that have happened during PayPal's 2010 international expansion, PayPal appears to be living in interesting times.

PayPal International's interesting times began on January 27th.  The date that the Reserve Bank of India asked PayPal "to immediately suspend PayPal payments to and from India as well as transfers to local banks in India."

• "I’m personally committed to working closely and tirelessly with the Reserve Bank of India to get a fast resolution to this issue" Farhad Irani, 14 February 2010

PayPal's India problems marched through February and March.

Then came a PayPal Japan revelation:

• "PayPal recently announced that as of March 31 customers in Japan are no longer able to make personal payments to individuals using the company's 'send money' service and that the facility would remain suspended until further notice."

Unfortunately PayPal's India problems have not gone away.

• 28 July 2010:  "This morning, an email was sent to Indian users, notifying them that they would (very) soon be removing the ability to withdraw funds from accounts electronically."
• 31 July 2010:  "We’ve received good news. You can continue to enjoy electronic withdrawals just as you did before."

And despite Farhad Irani's declaration, PayPal remains unlicensed in India.

• Certificates of Authorisation issued by the Reserve Bank of India under the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 12 July 2010

But guess what notable United States companies are licensed in India?

Answer:

• American Express (licensed 2009)
• Diner's Club  (licensed 2010)
• MasterCard (licensed 2009)
• Visa  (licensed 2009)

• MoneyGram (licensed 2009)
• Western Union (licensed 2009)

When PayPal's intentions come across as "PayPal wants to replace credit cards in stores", how will the larger companies react?

Or more to the point, how are the larger companies reacting?

Consider these numbers.

• In 2009 according to "eBay Inc. President and CEO John Donahoe. “PayPal significantly expanded its presence globally and, for the first time, processed more than $20 billion in total payment volume in a quarter.""
• Discover (established 1985), which owns Diner's Club (established 1950), reported sales volume of $23 billion in the second quarter of 2010.
• American Express (established 1850) reported a 2009 fourth quarter volume of $115 billion.
• Number two MasterCard (established 1966) reported a 2009 fourth quarter purchase volume of $510 billion.
• While number one Visa (established 1958) posts "$4.8 trillion total volume" for a twelve month period.  A rough average of $1,200 billion a quarter versus PayPal's $20 billion quarter.

If you were, say Visa, nothing to worry about right?

Yet Visa's international activities indicate they take PayPal's growing international presence seriously.  Or 'coincidentally' Visa, as well as MasterCard, etal, are aggressively expanding their international businesses in the same year as PayPal.

• February 11 2010
• Visa and Travelex Launch Visa Money Transfer for Remittances from Australia
• "Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), the world's largest retail payments network, and Travelex, the world's largest international foreign exchange and international payments specialist, today announced the launch of the first Visa Money Transfer service in Australia."

• May 11 2010
• MoneyGram and Visa Introduce Cash-to-Visa Card Money Transfer Program
• "launch of MoneyGram's first cash-to-Visa card program enabling consumers to transfer money from MoneyGram locations in the United States directly to the Visa accounts of recipients outside of the United States"

• May 25 2010
• Visa and Bancomer Transfer Services Launch Visa Money Transfer for remittances from the U.S.
• "launch of a money transfer service that will provide an additional alternative for consumers that send money from the United States to friends and family living abroad. "
• "initial deployment of the service will enable consumers to send funds from the United States to select countries such as El Salvador, Brazil, China and The Philippines, with plans to extend the program to allow remittances from BTS locations to any country within the Visa network."

Visa did not ignore India.

• May 26 2010
• Visa and Monitise to Launch Joint Venture in India
• "formation of a joint venture that will provide a technology platform for financial institutions and mobile network operators in India to offer a range of mobile financial services to consumers."

PayPal remained on the move, entering the South Africa market in March.

Not that Visa was far behind.  As they churned this out in a July press release:

• "As a first time sponsor of the FIFA World Cup, we're very happy with what this has done for our business. It has driven business growth - increasing transactions, building our brand and providing business development opportunities for our partners"

Definitely interesting things happening in 2010.

eBay's (PayPal is owned by eBay) CEO John Donahoe said in 2009, "PayPal is a business that will be bigger than eBay."  Along with the comment, "Donahoe said we are not that far off from the day where a restaurant beams a bill to your mobile device and you pay via PayPal."

A skirmish is defined as "a minor fight in war usually incidental to larger movements."  Did John Donahoe's 2009 PayPal chest thumping get the attention of the major credit card companies?  Touching off the 2010 prelude to international payment system skirmishes?

We'll see.

As the owner of PayPal, eBay INC is not immune from the major credit card companies.  Remember MasterCard's $510 billion purchase volume?  eBay's equivalent statistic, Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), for the same period was $12.5 billion.

'Coincidentally' MasterCard started their MasterCard MarketPlace in March 2010.  The "MasterCard MarketPlace" is initially being trademarked for the United States, European Union, China, Australia, and Canada.

MasterCard's MarketPlace commercial has a certain 'as compared to eBay' feel to it.  Since eBay INC calls it's eBay.com site, the "eBay Marketplace," MasterCard must be making a point.

A very sharp one.

/*

Addendum
19 August 2010

The day after we published the above article, reuters reported:

• UPDATE 4-MasterCard to buy DataCash for $520 million
• "The deal will improve MasterCard's ability to process payments online, especially in Europe and emerging markets, the company said. Its new chief executive, Ajay Banga, is trying to boost the company's profits by developing its online and mobile payments processing business."
• "MasterCard and Visa are trying to compete with PayPal, which is synonymous with online shopping in the minds of many consumers."
• "MasterCard, which gets 55 percent of its revenue from outside the United States, is looking abroad to grow."

/*

See Also:

• American Express Tells PayPal, Revolution Money Don't Leave Home Without It
• The PayPal India Transaction Holdup
• The PayPal India Transaction Holdup Continues
• The PayPal India Suspended Transaction Services and Farhad Irani
• PayPal India Service Hold Explained: 'We Don't Need No Stinking License'
• PayPal India Farhad Irani Restores Business Bank Withdrawls But Hold On Personal Funds Remain
• PayPal India Personal Accounts Hold and the April 30th RBI Deadline

/*

"Donahoe said, noting that only 5 percent of sales are online as compared to stores."
PayPal will be bigger than eBay.com, CEO says, 23 July 2009

"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with terrible resolve."
Isoroku Yamamoto, Tora! Tora! Tora! (1970)

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eBay and Johnny Sain

eBay and Johnny Sain
12 August 2010
EventHorizon1984

Decided to pick up some words to relax before a weekend (group  Ed.) three day systems contract, and AuctionBytes won the coin toss over TameBay.  The site didn't disappoint.

The day's guest lecturer was one eBay Addict, a self professed eBay shopper.  He has skill of a professional writer, with the hardball delivery of a stereotypical east coast resident. 

eBay Addict is reminiscent of the fictional sports writer Oscar Madison. But I'm getting ahead of myself here.  Let's rewind a bit.

Despite eBay Addict saying, "I'm not trying to bait you," he managed to hook quite a few live ones. 

The lively taunt and rant session piqued my curiosity.  Curiosity and Google went no where, but the {cough} {cough} baseball addict seated nearby had this to say:

"[expletive deleted] Braves."

I went 'huh?', but apparently there are baseball fans that recognize where eBay Addict appropriated the "We really don't want to hear about the labor pains, we just wanna see the baby." catch phrase. 

Johnny Sain (1917-2006)
Boston Braves 1946-1951
"The world doesn't want to hear about labor pains; it just wants to see the baby."

Ah sports writer.

His comments are sprinkled with sporting allusions.  Reading like other sports articles, such as one from east coaster Mike Bovenzi, who like dozens of others wrote a similar "fans don't want to hear about labor pains. The fans just want to see the baby."  Sadly he too didn't attribute Johnny Sain.

Who is eBay Addict and is he a sport writer? 

"We don't care..."
eBay Addict

Hope you enjoyed today's sports trivia.

/*

"You and other sellers like you just don't get it. Buyers (and eBay) are sick of the excuses and the rants. We really don't want to hear about the labor pains, we just wanna see the baby. And in this instance, your baby can't be delivered on time! ROFTL!!"
eBay Addict

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Calvin Klein Slow Death on eBay or Best Match?

Calvin Klein Slow Death on eBay or Best Match?
10 August 2010
EventHorizon1984

With minor fanfare Calvin Klein opened an eBay store last week.  It's incredible that eBay (EBAY, share price $21.91) kept this news low key given the Calvin Klein brand.  Then again given the pedigree of the Calvin Klein (1978) brand versus eBay's (1995), it might not have been eBay's decision to make.

Calvin Klein is owned by the Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation (PVH, share price $53.27). 

As noted by the multi-brand Phillips-Van Heusen, "We closed 2009 approaching $6 billion in global retail sales under the Calvin Klein brands."  Compared to the eBay 'oranges' of $4.46 billion in Marketplaces Net Transaction Revenue; i.e. fees not sales.

And of course Calvin Klein has it's own web store.

One might expect a well known global brand, to do well almost anywhere.

Well...

Calvin Klein may have opened an eBay Store last week, but their eBay selling ID was created on 30 September 2009.

Seller ID calvinklein has a positive feedback rating of 15.  With DSR (Detailed Seller Rating) of 5.0 Item as described, 5.0 Communication, 4.9 Shipping Time, and a sub-par 4.7 Shipping and handling charges.

There are 10,207 listings for calvinklein.

And 26,826 closed listings.

According to figures from eBay supported TeraPeak, from July 9 to August 7, calvinklein had 47 successful listings for total sales of $1,614.  And a sell through rate of 0.8%.

Given the lack of exposure on eBay's Fashion Vault page that Calvin Klein gets,

and the lack of press hype, perhaps the lack of sales should be expected.

Which leads to the question, if eBay is willing to show such tepid support for a $6 billion dollars in sales a year corporation, how do you think eBay treats the much smaller sellers?

/*
"Well, that is your name, isn't it? Calvin Klein? It's written all over your underwear."
Lorraine Baines, Back to the Future, 3 July 1985

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eBay INC 2010 Second Quarter Earnings Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers

eBay INC 2010 Second Quarter Earnings Numbers Of Interest To Small Business Sellers
21 July 2010
EventHorizon1984

As expected eBay INC posted reasonably good numbers for the second quarter of 2010.  But for small businesses on eBay there is the nagging side question, 'How did eBay.com do?'.

Well.                                  
 

Net Revenue growth is up an anemic 1% from the previous quarter.

Revenue generated principally through fees paid by users of eBay.com.  That is the more a seller lists, the more a seller sells, the more Marketplace Revenue eBay.com generates.  Of course when sellers slow down, so does eBay.com.

                                  
 
If you were selling on eBay.com, were you using PayPal?

The number of PayPal payments made and the amount of those PayPal payments, showed little change from the prior quarter.  Essentially sellers using PayPal saw little or no sales growth.

What about those claims that there is less merchandise on eBay.com.  That is, have products moved off eBay.com?

Car sellers have 8% More inventory on eBay.com than the previous quarter.  Sellers of everything else have 6% Less inventory on eBay.com than the prior quarter.

Wonder where it went?

Auction seller inventory now represents 41% of eBay.com's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume).  That's a decrease of 2% from the first quarter.

We'll leave readers with this fun fact:

"eBay also uses free cash flow. Free cash flow represents operating cash flows less new purchases of property and equipment. eBay considers free cash flow to be a liquidity measure that provides useful information to management and investors about the amount of cash generated by the business after the purchases of property, buildings, and equipment, which can then be used to, among other things, invest in eBay's business, make strategic acquisitions, and repurchase stock."

As a business, you wouldn't be worried about declining net cash and free cash flow.  Would you?

/*

"Our EBAY fundamentals call for Q2 is mixed - For Q2, we expect revenue growth deceleration"
Mark Mahaney, Citigroup

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eBay INC Stock Price During CEO John Donahoe's Tenure

eBay INC Stock Price During CEO John Donahoe's Tenure
30 June 2010
EventHorizon1984

While much is said about eBay INC's stock, there is one fact that's rarely talked about.  According to eBay INC's official investor page, in the matter of eBay INC stock dividends:

Which means for the average investor to materially benefit from eBay INC stock, they must sell and/or buy the stock.  In other words, 'buy low, sell high', short, et al.

Many analysts (who make money on fees You pay them) give the advice 'eBay stock is a long term investment.'  Is this stale and cliche advice a bad thing?

Depends on when you make the purchase, and your definition of 'long term.'

To show the short (no pun intended) version of eBay INC stock variation, presented below are eBay INC stock prices on days of note, during eBay CEO John Donahoe's watch.  Stock prices are taken at close of market (end of day).

Additionally you will find sets of five stock prices clustered around the dates of eBay INC's quarterly Earnings Call. The first two are the relative low or high value of eBay stock, prior to eBay's Earning Call. The third is the eBay stock price on the day of the Earnings Call. The the fourth and fifth are the relative low or high values of eBay stock after the Earnings Call.

Numbers and details relating to eBay INC provided through Yahoo! Finance and Seeking Alpha.

eBay INC Stock Price - 31 March 2008 to 30 June 2010.

29.84 - 31 March 2008, end of Q1 2008, John Donahoe becomes eBay CEO

32.94 - 4 April 2008, Highest stock price under John Donahoe

27.33 - 30 June 2008, end of Q2 2008

28.18 - 10 July 2008
26.89 - 15 July 2008
28.10 - 16 July 2008, eBay Q2 2008 Earnings Call
23.98 - 18 July 2008
25.38 - 23 July 2008

22.38 - 30 September 2008, end of Q3 2008

15.96 - 9 October 2008
18.10 - 13 October 2008
15.33 - 15 October 2008, eBay Q3 2008 Earnings Call
14.97 - 16 October 2008
15.47 - 20 October 2008

13.96 - 31 December 2008, end of Q4 2008

13.44 - 15 January 2009
12.55 - 20 January 2009
13.28 - 21 January 2009, eBay Q4 2008 Earnings Call
11.67 - 22 January 2009
12.00 - 23 January 2009

10.27 - 9 March 2009, Lowest stock price under John Donahoe

12.56 - 31 March 2009, end of Q1 2009

14.41 - 16 April 2009
14.06 - 20 April 2009
14.78 - 22 April 2009, eBay Q1 2009 Earnings Call
16.78 - 24 April 2008
16.20 - 28 April 2008

17.13 - 30 June 2009, end of Q2 2009

18.58 - 16 July 2009
18.55 - 17 July 2009
19.45 - 22 July 2009, eBay Q2 2009 Earnings Call
21.52 - 23 July 2009
21.24 - 24 July 2009

23.60 - 30 September 2009, end of Q3 2009

24.49 - 16 October 2009
25.15 - 19 October 2009
25.03 - 21 October 2009, eBay Q3 2009 Earnings Call
22.75 - 28 October 2009
23.01 - 29 October 2009

23.53 - 31 December 2009, end of Q4 2009
     Volume 5,990,600

23.26 - 19 January 2010
22.23 - 20 January 2010
24.13 - 21 January 2010, eBay Q4 2009 Earnings Call
23.58 - 22 January 2010
24.07 - 26 January 2010

26.97 - 31 March 2010, end of Q1 2010
     Volume 8,048,100

26.32 - 19 April 2010
26.40 - 20 April 2010
26.29 - 21 April 2010, eBay Q1 2010 Earnings Call
24.55 - 23 April 2010
24.56 - 26 April 2010

19.61 - 30 June 2010, end of Q2 2010

Finally an overview of eBay stock prices during eBay CEO John Donahoe's current reign.

31 March 2010 - 25 June 2010

To recap:

• 29.84 - 31 March 2008, end of Q1 2008, John Donahoe becomes eBay CEO
• 32.94 - 4 April 2008, Highest stock price under John Donahoe
• 10.27 - 9 March 2009, Lowest stock price under John Donahoe
• 19.61 - 30 June 2010

What if you heeded the call of your analyst to buy eBay stock on 31 March 2008 as a long term investment? 

As of 30 June 2010, you lost 34% of your investment.  And of course the fees you paid your analyst for such generous advice.

eBay INC's next Earnings Call is scheduled for 21 July 2010.

Where will eBay's stock price be then?

/*

"Longer-term, the pillars of the Internet, companies like eBay and Yahoo! will continue to outperform"
Youssef Squali, 5 March 2004

67.31 - 5 March 2004, eBay INC stock price not adjusted for stock split.
34.65 - 5 March 2004, eBay INC stock price adjusted for stock split.

/*

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ChannelAdvisor INC Responds To Michael Jones Revenue Targets On AuctionBytes

ChannelAdvisor INC Responds To Michael Jones Revenue Targets On AuctionBytes
22 June 2010
EventHorizon1984

AuctionBytes posted an article titled "Update: Michael Jones Leaves ChannelAdvisor, Headed for eBay", where a comment was made regarding ChannelAdvisor's revenues.

"after consistently failing to reach revenue targets, rumor has it that the split was not a case of greener pastures but of a nudging-out-the-door-nature. What this will mean for CA is unknown."

ChannelAdvisor INC responded to that comment.

Update - More information from ChannelAdvisor and confirmation from eBay:
eBay confirms that Michael Jones will be joining the company as Vice President of North American Business Development for eBay Marketplaces. A ChannelAdvisor spokesperson said he has not yet left the company; he's actively working in the office until June 30th, and, she said:

"Your source indicated that MJ was "consistently failing to reach revenue targets," yet we've reported record growth for ChannelAdvisor and its customers in our past three quarters: link, link, link.

"In the interest of full disclosure, I think you owe it to your readers to let them know that that blog post was written by a former ChannelAdvisor employee who now works for a competitor, Mercent."

The ChannelAdvisor INC spokesperson may be the contact person listed in the Press Releases.

Contact:
Delisa Reavis
ChannelAdvisor
delisa.reavis@channeladvisor.com
919.636.0659

We did a little research, and posted a comment to ChannelAdvisor's response.

> ''yet we've reported record growth for ChannelAdvisor and its customers in our past three quarters: link, link, link.''


These are standard vacuous Press Releases.  Of course those Press Releases avoid answering the question of ''revenue targets.''


Press Release #1 talks about the growth of ChannelAdvisor INC customers during that quarter.  But there is not one mention of ChannelAdvisor INC revenue during that quarter.

Press Release #2 has ChannelAdvisor INC CEO Scot Wingo stating, ''For ChannelAdvisor, 2009 was a fantastic and transformative year as we achieved our profitability goal of becoming EBITDA positive''.  Of course there is no mention of any objective dollar amount.  And what of ''EBITDA''?

ChannelAdvisor INC Press Release #3 makes the same claim, ''for the 12 months ending September, 2009, ChannelAdvisor achieved for the first time in company history a full year of positive EBIDTA '', but there is more.  Here's the rest of the quote following the ''positive EBIDTA'': ''(earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortization.''  Incidentally EBIDTA stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.

If earnings are ''positive'' BEFORE taking out expenses, one has to wonder if earnings would remain ''positive'' AFTER expenses.  The ChannelAdvisor INC Press Release is woefully silent.

Perhaps earnings AFTER expenses misses the ''revenue target''?  Or perhaps something else?

There are interesting pieces of data that ChannelAdvisor INC provides in it's Press Releases, that might explain whether ''revenue targets'' are being hit or missed.  At the bottom of each of these Press Releases:

Press Release #1 dated April 26, 2010:
''In 2009, ChannelAdvisor managed $2.6 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV)''

Press Release #2 dated January 20, 2010:
''In 2009, ChannelAdvisor managed $2.6 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV)''

Press Release #3 dated November 3, 2009:
''In 2008, ChannelAdvisor managed over $2.6 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV)''

If you look at ChannelAdvisor INC Press Release dated January 23, 2009 (
http://www.channeladvisor.com/news/2009/pr090123.html ), you will find:

*  ''for the full year, ChannelAdvisor recorded GMV of $2.6 billion.''

Fascinating.  ZERO GMV growth, as stated by ChannelAdvisor INC, between 2008 and 2009.  To state the obvious, ChannelAdvisor INC derives some revenue by assessing a fee on sales (percentage of GMV).

How much does ChannelAdvisor INC make on that ''$2.6 billion'' From It's Customers?  According to that Press Release, ''for the full year, ChannelAdvisor recorded revenue of over $35 million.''

Let's put that amount in perspective.

eBay seller Buy.com (bought by Rakuten), who is also a ChannelAdvisor INC customer, earlier this year had 30 day gross sales of $2.5 million.  Or using a very very rough calculation, that could be $30 million in sales for a year.

Here's what you'll find in another ChannelAdvisor INC Press Release dated September 04, 2008:

''ChannelAdvisor, the leading provider of e-commerce channel management solutions, today announced it has received an additional $20 million in funding to accelerate its growth.''

When you have ''$35 million'' ''recorded revenue''  (Net or Gross?), a $20 million cash infusion (with eBay as one of the investors) is a significant amount.

Maybe this cash infusion did not produce an appropriate increase in revenue, thereby missing ''revenue targets''?


Hmmm, maybe these press releases are not so vacuous after all.

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''but like a poor marksman, you keep missing the target''
Admiral James T. Kirk, Star Trek The Wrath of Khan (1982)

It was rather sloppy of us to forget the link to the September 04, 2008 ChannelAdvisor INC Press Release.

That Press Release is titled "CHANNELADVISOR SECURES $20 MILLION IN FUNDING" and this is the link, http://www.channeladvisor.com/news/2008/pr080904.html to that Press Release.

And the tale of ChannelAdvisor INC competitor Mercent INC?  According to their February 2, 2010 Press Release:

• Attained record consolidated GAAP revenues for Q42009 and FY2009
  
  • 106% (2.06X) year-over-year GAAP revenue growth for Q42009
  • 87% (1.87X) year-over-year GAAP revenue growth for FY2009
  • Fourth consecutive year of more than 75% annualized GAAP revenue growth
  • Fourth consecutive year of increasing annualized GAAP revenue growth

Of course there are no dollar amounts attached to their percentages.

/*

"Michael Jones - Chief Revenue Officer
As the Chief Revenue Officer, Michael is responsible for all of ChannelAdvisor’s revenue, corporate development and acquisition strategies."
ChannelAdvisor INC, 22 June 2010

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eBay Did Skype and PayPal Is Next??

eBay Did Skype and PayPal Is Next??
5 June 2010
EventHorizon1984

June 4th was a busy day for eBay stock traders as 56,354,674 eBay INC shares traded hands.  With an average trading volume of "19,149,300" shares was something up? 

Well, yes.  It was the usual games that stock analysts play with other people's (investor's) money.

But let's play the conjecture game, and suppose that analysts managed to figure out that eBay CEO John Donahoe telegraphs his moves.  A year in advance.

Take this news piece from 17 April 2008.

• ""What we're testing this year are the synergies," Mr Donahoe told the Financial Times this week after Ebay reported its latest earnings. "If the synergies are strong, we'll keep it in our portfolio. If not, we'll reassess it." That could lead to the disposal of the business, he indicated."

About a year later, 14 April 2009, Henry Blodget wrote this:

• "eBay is finally dumping Skype... on the public market! Specifically, it's planning to spin the company out in an IPO next year."

Do you know what John Donahoe thoughts on PayPal were 24 September 2009?

• "EBay would consider that step if PayPal no longer had synergy with the parent company, Donahoe said at a conference in Las Vegas. He said he regularly asks himself whether eBay is hampering PayPal's development."

We'll take the long shot bet that around September 2010 eBay INC will make an exciting announcement about PayPal.  Such a move would be a short term win-win for eBay and PayPal.

Long term?  Well John Donahoe is all about synergy and never about the long term.

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"In the meantime, by announcing the deal now, it can get investors excited about the separation and try to goad potential acquirers into ponying up and buying Skype outright -- which is presumably part of the thinking here."
Henry Blodget

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Rakuten INC Does "Buy It Now" of eBay INC Diamond Seller Buy.com

Rakuten Inc Does "Buy It Now" of eBay Inc Diamond Seller Buy.com
20 May 2010
EventHorizon1984

A figurative shoe dropped as The Wall Street Journal announced "Japan's Rakuten to Acquire Buy.com" earlier today.  Buy.com's "But It Now" price was a manageable "$250 million."

Here are some things you can look for while you watch this news rapidly spreading around the eBay blog-sphere.

1)  How long it takes eBay to respond.

When eBay does a hot roll out, their press release hits the stands at the same time the news hits the wires.  When eBay is caught off guard, there is a time lag between the wire news and their response.  You can measure the level of surprise at the corporate level, by the amount of time it takes eBay Corporate to officially respond.

When Rakuten Inc, "the top e-commerce site in Japan" says:

• ""We feel it has a great strategic fit with our global expansion," said Hiroshi Mikitani, the CEO of Tokyo-based Rakuten. "Our goal is to become the number one e-commerce company and Internet company in the world.""

There had better be a good response from eBay Inc.

Incidentally Rakuten Inc plans a joint venture with Baidu Inc.  The same China search engine that eBay is partnered with.

2)  How long it takes Amazon to respond.

When Rakuten Inc says:

• ""We believe that we have a very different business model from Amazon and eBay. We empower the merchants""
  

Expect an interesting response from Amazon.

3)  What will Randy Smythe say?

Well known business savvy eBay fixture Randy Smythe currently works as "Merchant Evangelist" of the "third-party merchant program" at Buy.com.  With Rakuten Inc stating "We empower the merchants" perhaps Mr. Smythe had a hand in the acquisition.

We doubt he was an innocent bystander in this deal.  Any comments he is allowed to make will be fascinating.

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"Just my 15%."
Randy Smythe

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The Consequences of Being Attached to eBay's Hip

The Consequences of Being Attached to eBay's Hip
17 May 2010
EventHorizon1984

Like many on line journals, for example (shameless SEO linking) TheBrewsNews, Red Ink Diary, GrannyGoodPaints Place, as a friend put it, we write 'for the halibut.'  Unlike other sites, there is no pressing need to gather an audience solely to hawk expensive services to eBay sellers. 

We bring this up because something we can neither confirm nor deny dropped on our virtual desk.  That tidbit brought up the question, 'what happens when the audience of a blog changes?'

The obvious answer:  the blog is read by fewer people.

If you write without regard to generating income, you'll continue to write something.  If you're dependent on the revenue generated through ads and hawking services based on an eBay centric audience, you have choices.

1.  Denial.  Nothing will change, continue as always.

"The old Ebay was sitting in people’s attics. The new Ebay is sitting in warehouses”
Lorrie Norrington, eBay INC

eBay will be around a long time.  But eBay's focus will move from small sellers to warehouse/volume sellers.  The focus of the newest eBay sellers is less toward folksy generic advice, and more toward receiving hard core business services.  Five years ago there was good revenue from giving general starter advice to people unfamiliar with the Internet.  Today people are more Internet aware, and through searches can get that expensive advice for free.

The fresh new unaware sellers will still be out there, but their numbers will continue to shrink.  Conversely the number of blogs providing advice and services will continue to mushroom.  To spell it out, more businesses for fewer customers.

2.  Expand your focus.  Multi-channel is good.

EBay Buys Skype for $2.6 Billion (2005)
Sold! eBay jettisons Skype in $2 billion deal (2009)

Multi-channel has benefits.  When executed properly it's a good move, like eBay centric (" eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor") Scot Wingo (ChannelAdvisor CEO) indirectly hawking  ChannelAdvisor Amazon services.  But as seen above there are risks involved.  For a revenue generating blog, perceived fallibility can translate to loss of face and loss of income. 

From a potential customer viewpoint, a business that makes mistakes of it's own choosing, might not be a good place to get advice or services.

3.  Do something else.  Change is good.

"You can't change people."
John Donahoe, eBay INC

Suppose one were a mystery writer, decided 'change is good', and kill off your most famous character.  It worked for Arthur Conan Doyle, right?

• "Public outcry, however, led Conan Doyle to bring the character back"

When a blog depends on advertising income, it's a very bad idea to alienate readers.  And in the process alienate the blog's revenue stream advertisers, who want to reach those readers.

In the aforementioned example said 'mystery writer' created a new character, but remained a mystery writer.  When you are essentially a 'business writer' and your revenue blog is eBay centric, what do you change to?

Join the parade of a million articles and books giving general business advice?

4.  Retire.

Most here are partial to number 4.

We expect to see many blog retirements over the next two years.

Disclosure:  Ad revenue affords one of us the occasional cup of coffee.  <sip>  Thank you.

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"It takes time, Doctor, but eventually you get there."
The Master, Doctor Who

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eBay v Amazon 1st Quarter 2010

eBay v Amazon 1st Quarter 2010
22 April 2010
EventHorizon1984

eBay

During Meg Whitman's term as eBay CEO, Jeetil Patel of Deutsche Bank AG posted an October 2007 "sell" rating on eBay.  A daring call given eBay's stock rose to 39.66 by 1 October 2007.

John Donahoe became eBay CEO on 31 March 2008.  At the close of that last day of the 1st Quarter, eBay stock stood at 29.84.   By 4 April 2010 eBay stock rose to 32.94. 

Move forward two years, and on 31 March 2010 eBay stock was priced at 26.97.  Down 18% from 31 March 2008.

A bit over two years later and a day after eBay's 1st Quarter 2010 Earnings Call, eBay stock stands at 24.78. With an average daily volume of 16.4 million shares, 55.6 million shares were traded.

The Zacks article eBay Grows, Sans Skype gives a detailed break down of eBay's 1st Quarter numbers.  They describe it as "a solid balance sheet", but end with "We have a Neutral rating on eBay shares."

eBay's "Gross revenue of $2.20 billion was down 7.4% sequentially and up 8.7% year over year."

Amazon

Interestingly the stock of eBay's competitor Amazon sat at 76.87 on 31 March 2008, and 135.77 on 31 March 2010.  Up 76% from 31 March 2008. 

On the day of Amazon's Earnings Call, Amazon stock stood at 150.09.  Average daily volume of 9.2 million shares with 13.6 million shares traded.

According to John Paczkowski's article "Amazon Profits Surge", Amazon's "Revenue grew 46 percent to $7.13 billion."

eBay v Amazon

At this point we're thinking the classic quote,

"I'm laughing at the superior intellect",

applies.

[Jeff Bezos photo from Digital Daily - Amazon Profits Surge]

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"I know you're in there, you're just out of sight"
Al Stewart and Peter White, Time Passages (1978)

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PayPal India Personal Accounts Hold and the April 30th RBI Deadline

PayPal India Personal Accounts Hold and the April 30th RBI Deadline
17 March 2010
EventHorizon1984

Happy Saint Patrick's Day.

Now back to our irregular program.

We had expected the PayPal India debacle to fade into the background as PayPal (an eBay company) India slowly got it's Reserve Bank of India 2007 Payment and Settlement Systems Act (effective 12 August 2008) paperwork in order.

After all Farhad Irani provided PayPal India business customers withdrawl instructions on 1 March 2010 as promised.

And PayPal India spokesman Anuj Najar happily chirped:

We've Resumed Local Bank Withdrawls in India

---

Hi blog readers, it’s Anuj from the comms team here. Following on from Farhad’s blog post on Monday, I’m pleased to let our customers in India know that we’ve resumed local bank withdrawals.

When you select the ‘Withdraw Funds’ option on your PayPal account, we will ask you to fill out a new field entitled ‘Purpose Code’.    This information is required under the laws of India in order to identify the nature of cross-border merchant transactions. Simply select the one most appropriate for your business.  More details on purpose codes can be found here ( http://www.paypal.com/in/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=xpt/Marketing/popup/PurposeGroup_IN-outside )

If you have any questions, please contact PayPal customer support by logging into your PayPal account and clicking on ‘contact us’ at the bottom of the page.

I’d like to apologize again on behalf of PayPal for all the inconvenience this has caused our customers.

Anuj

Hi blog readers, it’s Anuj from the comms team here.

Following on from Farhad’s blog post on Monday, I’m pleased to let the thousands of  businesses who rely on PayPal to sell their goods and services around the world know that we’ve resumed local bank withdrawals in India.

When you select the ‘Withdraw Funds’ option on your PayPal account, we will ask you to fill out a new field entitled ‘Purpose Code’.    This information is required under the laws of India in order to identify the nature of cross-border merchant transactions. Simply select the one most appropriate for your business.  More details on purpose codes can be found here

If you have any questions, please contact PayPal customer support by logging into your PayPal account and clicking on ‘contact us’ at the bottom of the page.

I’d like to apologize once again on behalf of PayPal for all the inconvenience this has caused our customers.

Anuj

This entry was posted on Thursday, March 4th, 2010 at 7:45 am

Which is fine for the "thousands of Indian businesses who use PayPal". 

But whatever happened to those personal accounts whose funds PayPal put on hold January 2010?

Farhad Irani, Head of PayPal Asia Pacific, wrote on 1 March 2010:

Q. I run a charity, and I am based in India. I don’t see the purpose code for donations and charities
A. PayPal can currently be used only as a gateway for payments of goods and services into India. We cannot process payments for charitable donations at this time.

Q. I used to use PayPal for Personal Inward Remittance to India. Now, my balances are stuck in PayPal
A. We are no longer able to complete these withdrawals to your bank account in India.  You do have the option to complete your withdrawals by check.  If you have any questions, we urge you to contact PayPal customer support by logging into your PayPal account and clicking on ‘contact us’ at the bottom of the page.

Farhad Irani, Head of PayPal Asia Pacific, wrote on 26 February 2010:

"PayPal needs specific approvals to allow personal inward remittances to India, which we currently do not have. Until we get these approvals, personal payments into India will remain suspended."

Which brings up the question, PayPal says thousands of India business accounts but how many PayPal India personal accounts are there?

According to Anuj Nayar, PayPal Director of Global Communications, there are 1.6 million Indians signed up to PayPal.  With the caveat "not all of them are regular users".  We'll leave it to the reader to do some research as to how many regular PayPal personal account India users exist.

The India based IBNLive 16 March 2010 article "Has PayPal given you problems yet?" by Technology Correspondent Jaimon Joseph wrote:

"Within hours of reaching out to them, PayPal's PR team here patched me on a telephone call to Anuj Nayar, their Global Communications Head. He patiently explained the fracas to me, bit by bit, for the better part of an hour."

Which explained how he obtained that tantalizing 1.6 million fact.  And Mr. Joseph confirmed PayPal India's lack of paperwork being the reason for the transaction holds:

"I cross-checked my data with Alpana Killawala, at the Reserve Bank of India, I was in for a slight surprise. All money flowing across our borders is subject to two major laws. The Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) and the Payments and Settlements Act of 2007.

According to those laws, organizations like PayPal should have submitted themselves to scrutiny by the RBI. They hadn't, so they were pulled up. To prevent inconvenience to customers, the Reserve Bank has allowed PayPal to honour all transactions done upto January this year. But they're still on the watch list."

In other words 'pulled over for operating without a license'.  Solely the fault of the operator.

But Mr. Joseph also wrote something rather disquieting:

"If they don't satisfy all the bank's detailed questions by the thirtieth of April, their operations could be disrupted again!"

Now PayPal India payments were officially suspended on 27 January 2010, cause being operating with out a Payments and Settlements Act license.  The "thirtieth of April" is 90 days (give or take) after the suspension.  Ninety days being a sterotypical warning period. 

It appears PayPal was never in the clear to operate, but to "prevent inconvenience to customers" was given 90 days to comply with the law or face disruptions to PayPal's operations.

Interesting.

The clock is ticking PayPal India.  Get your act together.

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Apologies for the "transaction" typo in previous articles.

See Also

• PayPal India Farhad Irani Restores Business Bank Withdrawls But Hold On Personal Funds Remain
  
• PayPal India Service Hold Explained: 'We Don't Need No Stinking License'
• The PayPal India Suspended Transaction Services and Farhad Irani
• The PayPal India Transaction Holdup Continues
  
• The PayPal India Transaction Holdup

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"Delay or failure to receive such a license or regulatory approval could require PayPal to change its business practices or features in ways that would adversely affect PayPal’s international expansion plans, and could require PayPal to suspend providing products and services to customers in one or more countries."
John Donahoe, eBay CEO, 27 October 2009

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PayPal India Farhad Irani Restores Business Bank Withdrawls But Hold On Personal Funds Remain

PayPal India Farhad Irani Restores Business Bank Withdrawls But Hold On Personal Funds Remain
28 February 2010
EventHorizon1984

Continuing the trend of terse press releases, Farhad Irani "Head of PayPal Asia Pacific" stated February 26th on the PayPal Blog that "bank withdrawals for settlements for exports of goods and services" are anticipated to resume on March 3rd.

The small catch for India businesses is this new PayPal (an eBay company) requirement: "you will be required to fill out a new field entitled ‘Export Code’ when you request a withdrawal". 

Predictably PayPal provided no details on getting an "Export Code", but Farhad Irani promises that on March 1st he will "be back in touch with specific instructions on how you can move your money into your bank account"

An India business can wait and see what gems Farhad Irani releases from the PayPal vaults, or perhaps they could take the time to read the PluGGd.IN article PayPal Resumes Local Withdrawls to Indian Banks, Here is how to get Export Code, and find the section titled "How do I obtain IE Code or FIRC?".  Or see the Techie Buzz article Import Export Code (IEC) For PayPal India Payment Withdrawals and view the "Useful Links" section.

At this point one should wonder what PayPal has NOT said about this self-inflicted problem.

Consider the spin released by individuals with no stated relationship to PayPal that 'only personal accounts were affected' beginning 27 January 2010.  And quotes from terse PayPal Blog public relations releases.

• "I’m writing to let you know that personal payments to and from India and transfers to local banks in India have been suspended"  Anuj Nayar, PayPal spokesman, 6 February 2010.
• "Only personal payments should have been reversed."  Anuj Nayar, PayPal spokesman, 9 February 2010.
• "We were hoping that our merchant customers would be able to start withdrawing their funds at their local bank by today, but it looks like this will still take some more time."  Farhad Irani, Head of PayPal Asia Pacific, 14 February 2010
• "thousands of Indian businesses who use PayPal" Farhad Irani, Head of PayPal Asia Pacific, 26 February 2010

Interesting how according to PayPal, business affected went from essentially none to thousands.

Should be very interesting to see what gets extracted from PayPal in the months to come.

Meanwhile we'll leave you with these gems from enthusiastic India PayPal blogger Amit Sinha of Little About:

• "resumption of service of PayPal, acclaimed e-commerce business allowing payments and money transfers to be made through the Internet and one of the greatest means of communications of Indians overseas."
• "millions of Indians have had a sigh of relief"

"Millions"??

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Apologies for the "transaction" typo in previous articles.

See Also

• PayPal India Service Hold Explained: 'We Don't Need No Stinking License'
• The PayPal India Suspended Transaction Services and Farhad Irani
• The PayPal India Transaction Holdup Continues
  
• The PayPal India Transaction Holdup

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"I never said it. Honest" ... "For a while, out of childish pique, I wouldn't utter the phrase, even when asked to.  But I've gotten over that.  So, for the record, here it goes: 'Billions and billions.'"
Carl Sagan

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Resuming local bank withdrawals to India

---

Hi. It is Farhad Irani again with a progress update. We have been diligently working with the RBI and our business partners to resume Indian bank withdrawals for the thousands of Indian businesses who use PayPal to sell their goods or services in the global marketplace.

I’m pleased to tell you that the RBI has now allowed us to resume bank withdrawals for settlements for exports of goods and services. We are currently making changes to comply with Indian regulations for settlements for exports of goods and services, and we anticipate that as of Wednesday, March 3rd, we will be able to resume the bank withdrawal service. As part of the changes, you will be required to fill out a new field entitled ‘Export Code’ when you request a withdrawal. This information is required under the current laws of India in order to identify the nature of cross-border merchant transactions. On Monday, March 1st, we will be back in touch with specific instructions on how you can move your money into your bank account. I will be posting another blog then.

I’d like to thank the RBI for working with us to get this addressed. We know this is an inconvenience to you and we appreciate your patience.

Moving forward, the RBI has told us that PayPal needs specific approvals to allow personal inward remittances to India, which we currently do not have. Until we get these approvals, personal payments into India will remain suspended. However, if you are an exporter, you will continue to be able to use the PayPal service for payments of goods and services. In fact, with the changes we are making to our system, PayPal is now set to be a more powerful engine for exporters in India. With purpose codes for export transactions and FIRCs (Foreign Inward Remittance Certificates), you should now be able to get the export related benefits you seek.

We know the past few weeks have been difficult and I would like to assure you that we have been working tirelessly to resolve the situation and restore our service. PayPal’s highest priority is to always ensure we comply with all applicable regulations everywhere we do business around the world.

Going forward, you can expect the same reliability from PayPal that you have enjoyed for all these years. I would like to thank you all for sticking with us and assure you of our best services going forward.

Farhad

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PayPal India Service Hold Explained: 'We Don't Need No Stinking License'

PayPal India Service Hold Explained: 'We Don't Need No Stinking License'
18 February 2010
EventHorizon1984

With apologies to our India business colleagues, this will be brief because some of us are momentarily doing something else.

This is an excerpt from eBay's United States Securities and Exchange Commission Form 10-K, that eBay CEO John Donahoe signed on 17 February 2010.

"The Reserve Bank of India has asserted that PayPal’s offering of payment services to customers outside of India to send personal, non-commercial payments to recipients in India requires a license from the Reserve Bank. The Reserve Bank has directed the Indian affiliate of PayPal’s processing bank to suspend all withdrawals to the Indian bank accounts of PayPal customers for both personal and business customers. PayPal has suspended personal non-commercial payments to Indian accounts, and intends to apply for a license from the Reserve Bank of India, but PayPal could be subject to fines from the Reserve Bank for the period of operation without a license, and PayPal’s prospects for future business in India, both cross-border and domestic, could be materially and adversely affected."

Take note of the following:

• "period of operation without a license"
• "intends to apply for a license from the Reserve Bank of India"

eBay has stated PayPal is operating without a license in India.  And PayPal has not started the license process yet.  Merriam-Webster defines "intend" as "to have in mind as a purpose or goal."  Which is not the same as saying 'applied for a license' or 'is waiting for license approval.'  In other words, 'the check is in the mail.'

Worse case is PayPal arguing with the Reserve Bank of India, that PayPal does not need a license.

• "suspend all withdrawls to the Indian bank accounts of PayPal customers for both personal and business customers"

Needless to say that PayPal's first off-the-cuff response of the India transaction service halt only affecting personal transactions, "Personal payments to and from India will be suspended for at least a few months" and "Only personal payments should have been reversed", were in error.

• "personal, non-commercial payments to recipients in India requires a license"

eBay has stated the Reserve Bank of India stipulated PayPal needed a license for "personal, non-commercial payments."  BUT PayPal suspended transactions for "personal and business customers" instead of just "personal" transactions.

If there is someone in charge at PayPal International who's actually awake and functioning, perhaps they should bother to read what eBay CEO John Donahoe puts a signature to quarter after quarter.

"Delay or failure to receive such a license or regulatory approval could require PayPal to change its business practices or features in ways that would adversely affect PayPal’s international expansion plans, and could require PayPal to suspend providing products and services to customers in one or more countries."

The eBay Inc. United States Securities and Exchange Commission Form 10-Q, signed by eBay CEO John Donahoe, 27 October 2009.

He spoke, PayPal didn't listen.  PayPal dithered for almost a year and a half, and now "thousands of Indian businesses who use PayPal" are being adversely affected.

Interesting that it's three months to the day, 27 January 2010, where due to PayPal's ineptness in obtaining an India license, eBay's worse case scenario of "PayPal to suspend providing products and services to customers" occurred.

Enough already.  PayPal get your license and get on with business.

But don't fret.  The people in charge of PayPal India "intends to apply for a license from the Reserve Bank of India" REAL SOON NOW.

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Apologies for the "transaction" typo in previous articles.

See Also

• The PayPal India Suspended Transaction Services and Farhad Irani
• The PayPal India Transaction Holdup Continues
  
• The PayPal India Transaction Holdup

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“Badges? We ain’t got no badges. We don’t need no badges. I don’t have to show you any stinking badges.”
‘Gold Hat’ (Alfonso Bedoya), The Treasure of the Sierra Madre (1948)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaxURLFn6jU

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The PayPal India Transaction Holdup Continues

The PayPal India Transaction Holdup Continues
10 February 2010
EventHorizon1984

PayPal has not been forthcoming about specifically why PayPal "has currently suspended P2P (person-to-person) transfers to and from PayPal India accounts".  The statement from PayPal spokesman Anuj Nayar, "We temporarily suspended these services to respond to enquiries from the Indian regulators" never answered the question why was it necessary to suspend services to answer questions.

Today The New York Times published this statement.

India's Central Bank Stops Some PayPal Services
The New York Times
Heather Timmons and Claire Cain Miller
February 10, 2010

"The Reserve Bank of India said it asked the company on Jan. 27 to immediately suspend PayPal payments to and from India as well as transfers to local banks in India. PayPal said it complied with the request the next day."

Indicating the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "asked" PayPal to suspend payments.  Which is 'all well and good' save for this part of the article.

India's Central Bank Stops Some PayPal Services
The New York Times
Heather Timmons and Claire Cain Miller
February 10, 2010

"“Providers of cross-border money transfer service need prior authorization from the Reserve Bank under the Payment and Settlement Systems Act,” a spokeswoman for the Reserve Bank of India, Alpana Killawalla, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “PayPal does not have our authorization.”

The act, adopted in August 2008, regulates payment and settlement methods in India."

When a business fails to comply with the law, it is the fault of the business. Not the regulation.

Apparently the answer to why the suspensions occurred is PayPal's papers are not in order.

Since "August 2008"??

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See Also The PayPal India Transaction Holdup

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"Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer."
Rule of Acquisition #208

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Is eBay Search Burning?

Is eBay Search Burning?
21 November 2009
EventHorizon1984

By now you're probably seen, or perhaps we should say you haven't seen, eBay's search in action.  Perhaps not coincidentally this comes on the heels of a 11/19-11/20 "Scheduled Maintenance."

Readers can find the various takes on this incident at Google News.

According to an eBay System Announcement made at 02:59 PM PST, this is a minor problem.

"Due to errors in some of our backend systems, members may be seeing different errors in Search.  This could be that "We were unable to run the search results you entered.  Please try again in a few minutes", or simply the browser being unable to display the page."

And, "This is also affecting the ability to access eBay Stores through search directly, and sometimes from the store URL."

Unfortunately this highlights the historical response time of eBay's technical departments.

As you can see a warning went out at 05:02 AM PST, almost 10 hours before eBay decided to notify it's users.

Looking at the technical side you might ask, what gives?  eBay does say what is wrong, abet in an innocuous manner.  They mention errors in the "backend systems".

Picking a random easy to understand explanation at random, this is what Linktionary has to say.

Users interact with applications in front-end systems to make requests on back-end systems. The back-end systems then process the requests, searching and sorting data, serving up files, and providing other services. 

"Back-end systems" loosely refers to servers, superservers, clustered systems, midrange systems, and mainframes that provide data services to users. The location of these services is often called the server farm or data center.

In less complex lingo, i.e. normal human terms, eBay said there is a problem with the Search software and/or hardware.

Most of the bets from the professionals here cover eBay doing a barely tested software update snafu. eBay does has a history of implementing major changes over the weekend, with spectacular results.

The fix options here are patch buggy software or back out the changes.

The hardware aspect is best put by Pete Cashmore of Mashable:

If you’ve been on the web long enough, you’ll know that Twitter isn’t the first startup to have suffered scaling issues: the auction site had significant problems keeping the servers humming in its early days

Basically if you view eBay Search (software, hardware) as a car, Search redlined.  eBay managed to exceed the limits of the software and/or hardware.  For example, more items loaded into the database, than the system can handle.

The fix here is removal of items from the database and/or get more robust software and hardware.

eBay's last system announcement of 03:28 PM PST is almost four hours old, and the problem is coming up on lasting fifteen hours.  So we wonder if this is something as minor as eBay portrays, or something more worrisome?

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"When will you make an end?!"
Pope Julius II
"When I am finished."
Michelangelo, The Agony and the Ecstacy (1965)

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American Express Tells PayPal, Revolution Money Don't Leave Home Without It

American Express Tells PayPal, Revolution Money Don't Leave Home Without It
18 November 2009
EventHorizon1984

According to eBay's Accepted Payments Policy, Revolution Money is not accepted on eBay.  eBay may be strong armed into altering that policy.

Do you know that American Express will buy Revolution Money for $300,000,000?

American Express To Acquire Revolution Money To Develop Next Generation Payment Products
18 November 2009

The Cliffs Notes or MBA bullet point version.

• "The company's online person-to-person payment accounts are FDIC insured and ideally suited for social and instant messaging networks."
• "“New payments products and platforms are evolving rapidly and it's important for us to keep identifying cutting edge technologies that can extend our leadership beyond the traditional payments arena,” said Kenneth I. Chenault, chairman and chief executive officer of American Express"
• "“Revolution Money has a lot of room to grow as it competes head-to-head with other online and person-to-person payment providers. We are committed to using our global brand recognition, marketing reach and network expertise to help reach a critical mass of customers,” said Mr. Chenault."
• ""We have built a next-generation payments platform that will enable American Express to compete even more effectively, especially against online competitors,"" Ted Leonsis
• "The transaction, which is subject to regulatory review, is expected to close in the first quarter of 2010. The purchase price is expected to be approximately $300 million. Upon closing, Revolution Money would operate as a subsidiary of American Express"
• "expanding Revolution Money payment solutions internationally, extending product offerings to banks that issue cards on the American Express network"
• "Revolution Money is part of the family of companies within Revolution LLC, which was founded by AOL co-founder Steve Case"

More change coming to eBay in 2010?

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"Negative outcome.  Not good."
Control, Hard Time on Planet Earth (1989)

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"Come to think of it", eBay Lifted the Heineken Advertising Slogan

"Come to think of it", eBay Lifted the Heineken Advertising Slogan
2 November 2009
EventHorizon1984

It's been a long time since we've heard the phrase "Come to think of it".  Not the "new" eBay ads flooding the market with "Come to think of it, eBay."  But the Heineken slogan noted by Lucious Van Der Kreig on Auctionbytes."

"Come to think of it,
I'll have a Heineken."

Founded in 1864 by Gerard Adriaan Heineken, Heineken is "Europe's largest brewery."

Perhaps ironically you can find this 1986 color advertisement, "COME TO THINK OF IT ~ I'LL HAVE A HEINEKEN! 1986 AD" for sale by seller Woods_Elf on eBay.

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"If there is something to steal, I steal it."
Pablo Picasso

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Addendum
4 November 2009

A little extra digging turned up this gem.

ADVERTISING; SSC&B Campaign For Heineken to Begin
The New York Times
Philip H. Dougherty
May 26, 1981

"The first ad campaign for Heineken beer from SSC&B will begin to run in magazines next month. The ads will be big pictures of frosty, beaded bottles and glasses of the No. 1-selling import with the simple quote in smallish type, ''Come to think of it, I'll have a Heineken,''.

The rest of the very very short article states the initial advertising budget was $12 million.  Adjusted for inflation that would be about $28 million now.

One wonders how much eBay spent to copy an existing successful advertisement.

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Addendum
6 November 2009

Yes, at this point we're merely having fun.  After all eBay and it's compensated representatives are now spinning "Come to think of it" is a common idiom and essentially free for the taking.

Anyone know the name Mal MacDougall?

Mal MacDougall On the Spot
Adweek
Deanna Zammit
October 6 2003

"Along the way he introduced Diet Coke with the tag, "Just for the taste of it," and coined Heineken's "Come to think of it, I'll have a Heineken."

Here's to you Mr. Mal "Come to think of it, I'll have a Heineken" MacDougall.

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"I'm never surprised when the gods of advertising remind me once again that there is nothing permanent in the business but change."
Mal MacDougall

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Backstabbing 101 - Buy.com and Amazon Halloween Slicing of eBay?

Backstabbing 101 - Buy.com and Amazon Halloween Slicing of eBay?
30 October 2009
EventHorizon1984

With Buy.com an eBay partner, one might believe there is absolute loyalty extruding from Buy.com toward eBay.  Total absolute support of eBay owned PayPal by Buy.com on it's site, being one show of a tight partnership.

On the other hand tomorrow is Halloween.  Cue slasher background music.

Buy.com teams with Amazon in taking online payments

Buy.com on Thursday began offering “Checkout by Amazon” and “Amazon PayPhrase” that allows its customers use their Amazon accounts to pay bills.

Looks like a case of hurting the one you love.

Or is that Money Conquers All?

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"You traitorous, disloyal, you stab me in the back the first chance you get?"
James T. Kirk, Star Trek

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Whatever Happened To ... 661henryglen and General Motors (yourgmdealer) eBay?

Whatever Happened To ... 661henryglen and General Motors (yourgmdealer) eBay?
3 September 2009
EventHorizon1984

By now you're seen the joint General Motors (GM) and eBay joint communique, "eBay Motors and General Motors Extend California 'Click and Buy' Promotion Through September', trumpeting their success.

As they put it:

• "Since the beginning of the program through August 30, shoppers visited dealers’ virtual showroom sites more than 1 million times and logged more than 1.4 million searches of GM inventory. In addition, nearly 4,000 new car buyers entered into negotiations online, over the phone and in person"

However if you're the type that examines the hype and have a few questions, you may have spotted these articles:

• EBay Issues A Press Release Update About Their Innovative Relationship With GM
• TheBrewsNews.com - "So, let me get this straight… eBay put out a press release saying that a 57.1% feedback seller who has less than a handful of items that sold on the platform in a month, out of tens of thousands of listings, is part of a “successful” eBay experiment because the seller was able to generate almost 4,000 leads to conduct business outside of eBay.   I guess the term “innovative relationship” is probably an accurate description for the eBay-GM partnership.  The innovative relationship with GM does seem to fit in quite nicely with eBay’s whole disruptive innovation theme they currently have going on.  And, as Rob Chesney says, it is what eBay does best."

• GM + eBay = Crash & Burn
• DiamondHaus.com - "Doing a search of GM’s completed listings currently yields over 39000 listings for the past two weeks.  Going over the first five pages of 200 listings each yields no sales.  In fact I’ve watched this seller for a few weeks and have yet to find a single sale after going through approximately 10 – 20 pages.  However, yourgmdealer has received 9 feedbacks (more on that later) so there have been some sales.  Based on eBay’s stated average of a 70% feedback participation rate that would mean yourgmdealer has made roughly 13 sales.  This would yield a 0.03 % sell-through rate.  That’s about 100 times worse than BUY’s sell-through rate."

• GM Extends Its eBay Partnership - But Why?
• SeekingAlpha.com Richard Read - "GM's vice president of U.S. sales, Mark LaNeve, says that "The numbers on eBay itself aren't significant, but we didn't think it would be." Unfortunately, that's the classic "Yeah, we meant to do that" explanation for poor performance that never convinces anyone."

• eBay Motors Extends Special Deal for GM
• AuctionBytes.com Ina Steiner -
• "AuctionBytes has received email letters from sellers pointing to the low feedback ratings consumers are leaving for the seller."
• "Another complaint is that eBay is condoning off-eBay sales through the agreement."

• General Motors brings its legacy of bad service to eBay
• WalletPop.com - "Exhibit A in the "Nothing has changed" file is this: the feedback rating for GM's eBay account."

• eBay Seller YOURGMDEALER Racking Up The Negs!
• eBayMotorsSucks.com - "Meanwhile 11,410 GM Vehicles are left to sell on eBay - At the rate they are selling, the 2011’s will be out!"

• General Motors' deal with eBay leads to few sales
• BloggingStocks.com - "In the program's first week, there were 2,400 offers that led to negotiations, but the companies declined to say how many of those actually culminated in sales -- which is never a good sign."

Yes, the above is blatant link gathering, abet we do make it easier for you to find these articles.

We do recommend reading the TheBrewsNews.com article, and subscribing to their site.

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"We know GM has the vehicles, if not they can build them. ~ LOL"
ebay_paid

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Below is the obligatory screen shot (click to enlarge) of the eBay feedback for General Motors (GM).

And a text copy of GM's feedback.

http://feedback.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewFeedback2&userid=yourgmdealer

10 Feedback received

Revised Feedback: 0

	Feedback	From / Price	Date / Time
	Pleasant and easy to deal with	Buyer: strategicnetworksinc ( 0 )	Sep-02-09 10:08
	Chevrolet : Colorado (#390079847689)	US $28,427.00	View Item
	no car to buy	Buyer: 1spongekitty ( 1 )	Sep-01-09 08:08
	Chevrolet : HHR (#350241521084)	US $25,214.00	View Item
	BAIT AND SWITCH. POST BIN RAISED PRICE BY 950 FOR "TRUE COAT" ALA FARGO.	Buyer: shark1998 ( 961)	Aug-23-09 19:30
	Pontiac : Solstice (#320410583374)	US $30,002.00	View Item
	Dealer was very nic, item was as advertised and transaction was straightforward.	Buyer: rickrita535 ( 36)	Aug-21-09 11:05
	GMC : Canyon (#320410579385)	US $13,436.00	View Item
	IT HAS BEEN A VERY EASY PROCESS	Buyer: 661henryglen ( 0 )	Aug-21-09 10:48
	Chevrolet : Equinox (#320413548483)	US $21,710.00	View Item
	Great Deal for My Cobalt at Rotolo Chevrolet Superb Service by Shane Brown & All	Buyer: anoble ( 872)	Aug-21-09 09:41
	Chevrolet : Cobalt (#390079847630)	US $16,131.00	View Item
	Used "Buy It Now". Listed @ "wrong" price. Dealer refused to sell. GM no help !!	Buyer: setrigger ( 207)	Aug-20-09 17:47
	Chevrolet (#390080182961)	US $42,085.00	View Item
	THIS A VERY SIMPLE PROCESS	Buyer: 661henryglen ( 0 )	Aug-20-09 16:51
	Chevrolet : Cobalt (#350241502303)	US $14,580.00	View Item
	it was very easy	Buyer: 661henryglen ( 0 )	Aug-20-09 15:37
	Chevrolet : Equinox (#320412117336)	US $21,451.00	View Item
	The dealer was excellent, and we are happy with the purchase.	Buyer: pyates1_2007 ( 0 )	Aug-15-09 23:04
	Pontiac : Vibe (#350238284907)	US $16,630.00	View Item

In keeping with the article title, let's look into zero feedback buyers 661henryglen and pyates1_2007.  At the time of this article, neither has received any positive feedback from the sellers they made purchases from.

If you're wondering why zero feedback buyer strategicnetworksinc is not on our poke into list, we suspect they are Strategic Networks INC , a legitimate buyer.

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"Richard Kimble has been tried and convicted for the murder of his wife. But laws are made by men, carried out by men. And men are imperfect. Richard Kimble is innocent."
The Fugitive (1963)

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In the current rush to figure out what is going on with the GM and eBay deal, it's been posited that 661henryglen and pyates1_2007 are shill bidders. That they were sent in to boost feedback for GM.

This is wrong.

Consider for a moment that yourgmdealer (General Motors) was not the only seller that 661henryglen and pyates1_2007 and made purchases from.  You do know that these two made purchases from other sellers?  Ergo if you believe the shill bidder assumption, then 661henryglen and pyates1_2007 must be doing the same for the other sellers they made purchases from?

Really???

No.

This is not to say that there is no shill bidding or feedback manipulation occurring on eBay.  But considering the other sellers involved here, we don't see it.

Let's try the simpler explanation.  That perhaps we're dealing with what's commonly known as a "joy bidder".

• "These particular group of people would just bid and win your item and then refuse to respond to your emails or calls for payment."  paladin_star( 79)

Anyone take the time to ask these other sellers about these other closed transactions?  Take a guess as to what we did.

We believe it is wrong and unfair to tarnish the reputations of the other sellers involved.  If you feel the 'innocent unless proven guilty' is overly broad, honest sellers should consider that could have been you.

And with an abundance of joy bidders it can still be you.

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"The dealer was excellent, and we are happy with the purchase."
pyates1_2007 ( 0 )

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Buyer number one is pyates1_2007 and they've been an eBay member since November 27 2004.  According to eBay they reside in California (United States).

These are their last three purchases, and they've received no feedback.

Buyer pyates1_2007 bought a set of four tires.  For a very nice price. 

Nine days later pyates1_2007 purchased a 2010 Pontiac Vibe w/1SA "4 cylinder 1.8L Anti-Lock Brakes Bucket Seats" from GM San Diego, and the next day another 2010 Pontiac Vibe w/1SA (Hatchback 4 cylinder 1.8L Anti-Lock Brakes Power Brakes) from GM Paso Robles.  The only feedback they've given is for one of those cars.

• #350238284907 -- Paso Robles GM Dealer
• 2010 Pontiac Vibe w/1SA (Hatchback 4 cylinder 1.8L Anti-Lock Brakes Power Brakes)
• Purchased at:  Aug-13-2009 11:15:24 PST
• Feedback left at:  Aug-15-2009 23:04 PST

This looks like someone doing comparison shopping, then over the next two days taking what they consider the better deal.  The making multiple purchases but paying for only one, is a type of buyer/transaction common on eBay.

Our verdict:  Another satisfied GM customer.

Our condolences to the San Diego GM dealership.

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"it was very easy"
661henryglen ( 0 )

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We're sure it was easy.

Buyer number two is 661henryglen and they've been an eBay member since June 03 2009.  According to eBay they reside in California (United States).

They made multiple purchases over a two day (24 hour) period, and they've received no feedback.

http://feedback.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewFeedback2&userid=661henryglen&ftab=FeedbackLeftForOthers

9 Feedback left

	Feedback	Left for	Date / Time
	THANK YOU	Seller: gigadirect ( 1280)	Aug-21-09 14:31
	-- (#390083797397)	--	View Item
	thank you	lmendezjr2003 ( 39)	Aug-21-09 14:26
	-- (#220466055499)	--	View Item
	thank you	miker397 ( 101)	Aug-21-09 14:22
	-- (#270444908199)	--	View Item
	THANK YOU	appliancedirect321 ( 230)	Aug-21-09 12:35
	-- (#180399022173)	--	View Item
	THANK YOU	buy ( 824671)	Aug-21-09 12:26
	-- (#400068379238)	--	View Item
	THIS WAS VERY SIMPLE	gmouse123 ( 2087)	Aug-21-09 12:24
	-- (#320414700852)	--	View Item
	IT HAS BEEN A VERY EASY PROCESS	yourgmdealer ( 2 )	Aug-21-09 10:48
	-- (#320413548483)	--	View Item
	THIS A VERY SIMPLE PROCESS	yourgmdealer ( 2 )	Aug-20-09 16:51
	-- (#350241502303)	--	View Item
	it was very easy	yourgmdealer ( 2 )	Aug-20-09 15:37
	-- (#320412117336)	--	View Item

Here's where it gets interesting.

The list below shows on line one the item number and seller.  Line two has the time the item was purchased and the time feedback was left and the time between the two events (Hours:Minutes:Seconds).  Line three shows the purchase price and the name of the item.

Pay careful attention to the times in each line two.

1. 390083797397 -- gigadirect ( 1280)
2. Aug-21-2009 14:31:00 -- Aug-21-2009 14:31 PST -- 00:00:00
3. $1,499.00    6 WWE - SummerSlam Tickets 8/23/09 (Los Angeles) VIP

1. 220466055499 -- lmendezjr2003 ( 39)
2. Aug-21-09 14:25:53 -- Aug-21-2009 14:26 PST -- 00:00.07
3. $160.00    WWE - SummerSlam Tickets 8/23/09 (Los Angeles)

1. 270444908199 -- miker397 ( 101)
2. Aug-21-09 14:20:24 -- Aug-21-2009 14:22 PST -- 00:01:36
3. $515.00    Walmart Gift Card $500.00 Balance - Free shipping

1. 180399022173 -- appliancedirect321 ( 230)
2. Aug-21-09 12:13:39 -- Aug-21-2009 12:35 PST -- 00:21:21
3. $1,615.00    Maytag Epic Series 27" Front Load Washer and Dryer New

1. 400068379238 -- buy ( 824671)
2. Aug-21-09 12:11:36 -- Aug-21-2009 12:26 PST -- 00:24:24
3. $90.71    NEW Haier 1.7 Cu. Ft. Compact Mini Refrigerator (Top...

1. 320414700852 -- gmouse123 ( 2087)
2. Aug-21-09 11:12:35 -- Aug-21-2009 12:24 PST -- 01:11:25
3. $539.97    NEW NINTENDO WII+WII FIT+WII SPORTS RESORT+MARIO KART

1. 320413548483 -- yourgmdealer ( 2 )
2. Aug-21-2009  07:23:47 -- Aug-21-2009 10:48 PST -- 03:24:13
3. $21,710.00    2009 Chevrolet Equinox LS

1. 350241502303 -- yourgmdealer ( 2 )
2. Aug-20-2009  16:48:01 -- Aug-20-2009 16:51 PST -- 00:02:59
3. $14,580.00    2009 Chevrolet Cobalt LS

1. 320412117336 -- yourgmdealer ( 2 )
2. Aug-20-2009  15:33:11 -- Aug-20-2009 15:37 PST -- 00:03:49
3. $21,451.00    2009 Chevrolet Equinox LS

A rather short time between purchase, delivery, and feedback wouldn't you say?  Not that there appears to be at the moment any money changing hands.  According to sellers 661henryglen never pays for their purchases, and unpaid item cases have been opened.

Our verdict:  Possible "Joy Bidder".  Consider putting this one in your Bidder Block List (BBL).

Because 661henryglen hit sellers that eBay has a vested interest in, buy (Buy.com) and yourgmdealer, we believe their buying spree days may be over.

But that does bring up an interesting conundrum.  Big IF 661henryglen committed unwelcome and malicious buying against eBay vested interest sellers, why is their account not a registered user (NARU)?

Two answers:

1. They're a legitimate buyer.
2. If their account is NARU'd, this leaves open the possibility that ALL feedback left would be removed.

If we're dealing with case number two, this would have virtually no affect on buy (Buy.com).  Buy (Buy.com) has 679,689 positive feedback over a 12 month period.  Removing one positive feedback would result in an insignificant change in their Feedback Profile.

The GM yourgmdealer account is a another matter though.  Over a 12 month period (or 1 month period),  yourgmdealer has seven positive feedback and three negative feedback, resulting in a 62.5% Feedback Percentage.

What kind of visual image does the casual view see with three less positives?  Does a Feedback Rating of four positives and three negatives look good?  Which is the near coin toss chance of getting a good deal from GM/eBay.

Are we having fun yet?

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"It's my gift. It's my curse."
Frank Black, Millennium (1996-1999)

"It's a blessing, and a curse."
Adrian Monk, Monk (2002-2009)

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Smell that MBA from Lehman Brothers

The Urbanite blog made a quick mention of one eBay auction.

http://weblogs.amny.com/entertainment/urbanite/blog/2008/09/on_ebay_its_going_going_gone_f.html
On eBay, it's going, going gone for Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch collectibles

"Ebay seller ny_dealmaker is selling a “Lehman Brothers Color Changing Travel Thermos.” The former employee writes: “Make my lose your gain.” "

We have the link to that auction, below. The auction description does make one wonder if this potential Lehman Brothers MBA is typical of the the late broker's staff.

http://cgi.ebay.com/Lehman-Brothers-Color-Changing-Travel-Thermos_W0QQitemZ250295576079QQihZ015QQcategoryZ73502QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

"Own a piece of Lehman Brothers memorabilia. This is a thermos that changes color when you add liquid. It says Lehman Brothers behind the plastic. This is brand new and never been used. Make my lose your gain."

ny_dealmaker

Get your red pencils out.

"This is brand new and never been used. Make my lose your gain."

How about?

"This is brand new and has never been used. Make my loss your gain."

Doesn't this make you worry just a little about the eBay expertise of Lehman Brothers?  Given the fact that Lehman Brothers collapsed due to the expertise of Lehman Brothers.

http://onlyebay.blogspot.com/2007/12/citigroup-and-lehman-raise-ebay.html
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Citigroup and Lehman Raise EBAY Estimates

In a report released this morning, Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney has raised his EBAY earnings estimates and reiterated his Buy rating, citing his tracking of proprietary listings. Mahaney states that fundamentals are shaping up stronger than consensus expectations. Mahaney claims that "re-entry into Japan and the growth of eBay's PayPal online payment service are also positives for the company's portfolio of brands." Mahaney has a $49 price target. Mahaney joins Lehman Brothers analyst Doug Anmuth, who earlier this week also raised his earnings estimates on EBAY despite maintaining his Hold rating and $33 price target.

eBay hit another 52 week record low of $21.70 per share.

Lehman Brothers is currently trading at $0.21 per share.

Pick up a buck's worth and make their "lose your gain."

Disclosure: Our English Grammar is terrible. So is our sense of humor.

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