Sometimes You Have To Look Back To See Forward
EventHorizon1984
11 January 2009
"according to poster (itspostingtime), I don't know what I'm talking about"
Randy Smythe, My Blog Utopia, 6 December 2008
It could be said that the anonymous eBay poster itspostingtime and his alter egos make liberal use of this argument. That's he's right (yes Mr. Smythe it's "he") because everyone else doesn't know what they're talking about.
Like this alleged alter ego.
cohibastore.com
Total posts: 2336
USA US Pennsylvania
Posted: Sat Dec 27, 2008 11:07 pm
Post subject: 2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved
The first, on May 21, headed "Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts" , reported that the entire Alpine "winter sports industry" could soon "grind to a halt for lack of snow". The second, on December 19, headed "The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation" , reported that this winter's Alpine snowfalls "look set to beat all records by New Year's Day".
Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/3982101/2008-was-the-year-man-made-global-warming-was-disproved.html
Ultimately, in 10 to 20 years, we'll see whether cohibastore (cleggandco, maybe itspostingtime) is right or totally off the mark. Or maybe we can accomplish the look ahead sooner. By looking back.
Sometimes You Have To Look Back
In the day, or at least in our day, computer modeling was a hit or miss affair. There were limits to what a researcher could do with computing power equivalent to what the average person has in their cell phone.
That changed in the later part of the 20th Century. Computer modeling became less of a quija board and more of a precise analytical tool. Good examples are nuclear weapons research and high energy particle physics. Which is not to say that everything could be computer modeled accurately. Notable exceptions being horse racing and predicting the weather.
Predicting Triple Crown Winners
Tell a gambler you have a system for horse racing, and they may have visions of easy money. Tell a Professional Gambler you have a computer model for horse racing, and one thing they'll want to see (after laughing) is your track record.
Did you predict the winner for one race? A day's worth of races? A year's worth? Multiple years?
You know a computer model or simulation of an event is fairly good, when the model is correct over time. A good track record does have weight. It's not proof, but such a model should be given some consideration in it's ability to predict.
"Unpredicted by all those computer models", Christopher Booker
Given the tens of thousands of models from all view points on the topic Global Warming, we applaud cohibastore's spokesman Mr. Booker for his Craw computer-like facility to sift through all of them.
We do not plan on performing that miracle here. This is after all a quick chat.
Using the old school unscientific method of randomly going through old newspaper clippings like cohibastore, we'll do a quick check of what was being said.
cohibastore.com
Total posts: 2336
USA US Pennsylvania
Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2008 1:18 pm
As we've noted, 2008 has been a year of records for cold and snowfall and may indeed be the coldest year of the 21st century thus far. In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration registered 63 local snowfall records and 115 lowest-ever temperatures for the month of October.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=315533893763712
Not from 2008 or this year, because any hack can do that, but from years earlier.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/11/031106052121.htm
6 November 2003
"Such increases (in temperature) widen the gap between water temperature and air temperature – the ideal condition for snowfall.”
http://investor.com.com
14 October 2005
"Heavier rain or snow, however, will also fall in northwestern and northeastern North America, northern Europe, northern and eastern Asia, southwestern Australia, and parts of South America during the current century."
Obviously these are not heavy science pieces. Then too neither were the articles in the PowerSellers Unite thread. Equally obvious is there are thousands of papers that can show any view you want.
But for the purpose of the original PSU position, it's not an honest debate to state that Snow proves the models are false. In fact it's down right silly to base an argument on something that proves the opposition correct and you wrong.
One makes valid arguments pointing out flaws in a model, not by showing how well the model predicts.
Epilogue
This piece really has nothing to do with the climate debate, so what is the point of this piece? Other than keyword generation.
It's Coherent Arguments For Dummies.
If one is going to make an argument that 'A' proves 'B' false, better be sure that is the case.
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“To get anywhere, or even live a long time, a man has to guess, and guess right, over and over again, without enough data for a logical answer.”
Robert Heinlein
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The 40th Anniversary of the Apollo 11 Moon Landing. Why Bother With Columbus Day??
The 40th Anniversary of the Apollo 11 Moon Landing. Why Bother With Columbus Day??
20 July 2009
EventHorizon1984
Today the United States and the world remembers the historic 20 July 1969 landing of the lunar module Eagle (Apollo 11) on the moon, and human's first step upon the moon.
Why forty years later is this uniquely American endeavor not a U.S. national holiday?
Because the United States continues to have the inane 'America Discovered' holiday of Columbus Day. A national holiday celebrating the 'accomplishment' of an Italian national, sailing for the Spanish government to find a route to China, but landing in what is now the British Bahamas instead. Not quite the site of the future U.S.
Columbus Day is also celebrated in Spain. And as we understand it no where else. Of course.
Incidentally Leif Ericson was the first historically recorded European to land on North America. He did so and started a settlement about 5 centuries earlier (1003 AD). Of course his party was greeted by the local indigenous population.
So much for Columbus being "first."
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"That's one small step for (a) man. One giant leap for mankind."
Neil Armstrong, United States, 20 July 1969
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Posted on 20 July 2009 at 12:15 in Commentary, History, Science, Space | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Technorati Tags: 1003, 20 July 1969, Apollo 11, Columbus, Columbus Day, Eagle, Lief Ericson, lunar, Lunar Module, moon landing, Neil Armstrong
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