Not a great fan of sport allegories. But does this other one sound familiar?
"Leading up to the fight he had declared he was going to 'dance' and use his speed to keep away from Foreman and out box him. However in the first round Ali headed straight for the champion ... Ali caught Foreman nine times in the first round with this technique but failed to knock him out." [3]
Leading up to the June 14th opening of eBay Live! 2007, Google had this to say:
"Join us for a celebration of freedom and your right to use Google Checkout. Hop on a classic Beantown trolley outside eBay Live! and follow the freedom trail to the Old South Meeting House, where revolutionaries launched the Boston Tea Party and where eBay sellers will have a party of their own."
eBay reacted, and action from eBay was predictable to anyone.
The Hare
Shift mindset to long country drive for a moment and think about this.
eBay reacts quickly to stimuli, and prioritizes short term over long term. The latter leading to ignoring problems that have no immediate consequence.
"The notion that managers must above all appease investors drives behavior that focuses exclusively on quarterly results." Clayton M. Christensen and Scott D. Anthony [4]
To get an earful of how eBay reacts, read through eBay's Discussion Boards at http://pages.ebay.com/community/boards/
When you pick out that scintilla of how eBay runs it's day to day operations, you'll see it matches Corporate policy.
"The key thing is, if you make a mistake, have the courage to fix it quickly. I do think the price of inaction is far higher than the cost of making a mistake." Meg Whitman, eBay, 2002
The thing about this philosophy is it only looks good on paper. Or as might be found in some forgotten pseudo-hypothetical eBay Training Manual. "You don't want to make the problem worse by solving symptoms of the problem only to have the problem get worse or manifest itself in another way."
Or put another way:
"Never chase a man over a cliff." Constable Benton Fraser, Due South
The Tortoise
Google reacts slowly, thinks long term and is methodical about what it does. The weakness here is over thinking a situation to death and going nowhere.
"If opportunities arise that might cause us to sacrifice short-term results but are in the best long-term interest of our shareholders, we will take those opportunities," the letter read. "We will have the fortitude to do this." Larry Page, Google, 2004 [5]
"Let's solve the problem but let's not make it any worst by guessing." Gene Krantz, Apollo 13
"When you get in situations where you cannot afford to make a mistake, it's very hard to do the right thing. So if you're trying to do the right thing, the right thing might be to eliminate the cost of making a mistake rather than try to guess what's right." Ward Cunningham, Inventor of the Wiki
A measure of this patience is seen in Google's Google Operating System project. [6] This has been ongoing for years with a projected 2010 release.
Neither method is perfect, but they do work. Billions in revenue is fair proof of that.
You can observe a lot just by watching. [7]
The distinction between eBay and Google planning philosophies is striking.
It also makes for easy predictability of how one will react.
Google, and anyone capable of thinking past 90 days, would have anticipated eBay's eventual removal of ads from Google. eBay had already established an exclusive ad relationship with a Google competitor, Yahoo! in May 2006. With more ads to come.
"The Yahoo ads now appearing on eBay is a sore topic among eBay sellers. AuctionBytes has speculated that eBay may make an announcement this week about eBay Express ads possibly appearing on Yahoo's ad network." AuctionBytes, 2007 [8]
And there have been sufficient hints and facts dropped to anticipate what eBay would eventually do.
"What's most important to eBay, analysts say, is that it turn more profit from advertising as its auction business matures." August 2006 [9]
Not much forethought is required to see these probabilities. When you have a customer that appears to have bought more of your product, but not directly from your business, you know they're looking elsewhere.
The questions become:
Will they remain a customer?
Will they buy less from you? How much less? Over how long a period?
Will they stop buying from you? When?
The smart seller asks a customer, 'how can I make this better for you?'
Not being privy to Google and eBay talks, I'll take the leap that Google did ask eBay the same question. And got essentially got a nothing useful answer.
Depending on the source, Google receives $25 to $100 million a year in ad revenue from eBay.
Google Ad Revenues [10]
2006 $10,604,917,000
2007 Q1 $3,663,971,000
This represents less than 1% of Google's yearly ad revenues.
Any business intending to exist for the long term would be loathe to lose even this amount of revenue. But what if you could project down the road that purely based on the mercurial whim of the customer, the 1% would eventually become zero?
And what if the customer is aggressively moving into areas you sell in, reducing your own revenue stream?
Feint [11]
A feint attack is designed to draw defensive action towards the point under assault. It is usually used as a diversion to force the enemy to concentrate more manpower in a given area so that the opposing force in another area is weaker. Unlike a related diversionary maneuver, the demonstration, a feint involves actual contact with the enemy.
A feint retreat is performed by briefly engaging the enemy, then retreating. It is intended to draw the enemy pursuit into a prepared ambush, or to cause disarray.
Any reasonable person would expect eBay to react to Google's Boston party. Predictable behavior; prod eBay and eBay jumps.
The actual response is not 100% predictable.
Okay, you're Google. You need to know what eBay will do that will impact your business. eBay won't tell you. Your job then is to see how eBay responds in kind.
Possibilities.
eBay takes the high road and does nothing. Free speech, right to assemble.
eBay gives the appearance of strength, and does nothing except to say,"We keep an eye on their efforts." Hani Durzy, April 2007
eBay goes society tsk tsk and does nothing except say, "When we heard of their plans to have their party and the way they were marketing it, we were disappointed." Hani Durzy, eBay Live! 2007
eBay goes defensive and pushes the benefits of PayPal, and takes no other action.
eBay goes defensive, pushing the benefits of PayPal, and warning sellers about Google, "In our estimation, it fails in at least one requirement of the Accepted Payments Policy." Hani Durzy, 2006
etc.
And the very last possibility that an adult might expect from another adult:
eBay throws a tantrum.
Now you know eBay's response. Now you know what eBay can and will do.
Now everyone knows.
And everyone has seen your response. A Gentleman's response to doing something that bordered on questionable, but within your rights as a business.
And again if you're Google, you already had planned responses to eBay's responses.
And you absolutely know you're playing chess against an opponent used to Nintendo.
"This company truly is built by the community of users." Meg Whitman [12]
"It's a little like Frank Perdue crediting his chickens." Adam Lashinsky [12]
At this time, the message eBay sent to Google, also filtering to eBay sellers: ads can disappear at any time and sales decreased as a result. This is called collateral damage.
TSK, TSK.
You'll need a lot of patience following Google v eBay, as this tableau between Google and eBay may run several months.
I am betting though that Google is up to something, and this is only a peek.
What is the moral? Must be a moral. [13]
Remember the fight mentioned at the beginning? Fights last more than one round, and it's a lesson in patience.
"We will have the fortitude to do this." Larry Page, Google [5]
Ali vs Foreman, 30 October 1974:
"He then decided to take advantage of the young champion's one weakness: staying power.
In the second round, the challenger retreated to the ropes inviting Foreman to hit him, whilst counterpunching and verbally taunting the younger man. Ali's plan was to enrage Foreman and absorb his best blows in order to exhaust him mentally and physically.
The champion threw hundreds of punches in seven rounds but with decreasing technique and effect.
Not a great fan of sport allegories. But does this other one sound familiar?
"Leading up to the fight he had declared he was going to 'dance' and use his speed to keep away from Foreman and out box him. However in the first round Ali headed straight for the champion ... Ali caught Foreman nine times in the first round with this technique but failed to knock him out." [3]
Leading up to the June 14th opening of eBay Live! 2007, Google had this to say:
"Join us for a celebration of freedom and your right to use Google Checkout. Hop on a classic Beantown trolley outside eBay Live! and follow the freedom trail to the Old South Meeting House, where revolutionaries launched the Boston Tea Party and where eBay sellers will have a party of their own."
eBay reacted, and action from eBay was predictable to anyone.
The Hare
Shift mindset to long country drive for a moment and think about this.
eBay reacts quickly to stimuli, and prioritizes short term over long term. The latter leading to ignoring problems that have no immediate consequence.
"The notion that managers must above all appease investors drives behavior that focuses exclusively on quarterly results." Clayton M. Christensen and Scott D. Anthony [4]
To get an earful of how eBay reacts, read through eBay's Discussion Boards at http://pages.ebay.com/community/boards/
When you pick out that scintilla of how eBay runs it's day to day operations, you'll see it matches Corporate policy.
"The key thing is, if you make a mistake, have the courage to fix it quickly. I do think the price of inaction is far higher than the cost of making a mistake." Meg Whitman, eBay, 2002
The thing about this philosophy is it only looks good on paper. Or as might be found in some forgotten pseudo-hypothetical eBay Training Manual. "You don't want to make the problem worse by solving symptoms of the problem only to have the problem get worse or manifest itself in another way."
Or put another way:
"Never chase a man over a cliff." Constable Benton Fraser, Due South
The Tortoise
Google reacts slowly, thinks long term and is methodical about what it does. The weakness here is over thinking a situation to death and going nowhere.
"If opportunities arise that might cause us to sacrifice short-term results but are in the best long-term interest of our shareholders, we will take those opportunities," the letter read. "We will have the fortitude to do this." Larry Page, Google, 2004 [5]
"Let's solve the problem but let's not make it any worst by guessing." Gene Krantz, Apollo 13
"When you get in situations where you cannot afford to make a mistake, it's very hard to do the right thing. So if you're trying to do the right thing, the right thing might be to eliminate the cost of making a mistake rather than try to guess what's right." Ward Cunningham, Inventor of the Wiki
A measure of this patience is seen in Google's Google Operating System project. [6] This has been ongoing for years with a projected 2010 release.
Neither method is perfect, but they do work. Billions in revenue is fair proof of that.
You can observe a lot just by watching. [7]
The distinction between eBay and Google planning philosophies is striking.
It also makes for easy predictability of how one will react.
Google, and anyone capable of thinking past 90 days, would have anticipated eBay's eventual removal of ads from Google. eBay had already established an exclusive ad relationship with a Google competitor, Yahoo! in May 2006. With more ads to come.
"The Yahoo ads now appearing on eBay is a sore topic among eBay sellers. AuctionBytes has speculated that eBay may make an announcement this week about eBay Express ads possibly appearing on Yahoo's ad network." AuctionBytes, 2007 [8]
And there have been sufficient hints and facts dropped to anticipate what eBay would eventually do.
"What's most important to eBay, analysts say, is that it turn more profit from advertising as its auction business matures." August 2006 [9]
Not much forethought is required to see these probabilities. When you have a customer that appears to have bought more of your product, but not directly from your business, you know they're looking elsewhere.
The questions become:
Will they remain a customer?
Will they buy less from you? How much less? Over how long a period?
Will they stop buying from you? When?
The smart seller asks a customer, 'how can I make this better for you?'
Not being privy to Google and eBay talks, I'll take the leap that Google did ask eBay the same question. And got essentially got a nothing useful answer.
Depending on the source, Google receives $25 to $100 million a year in ad revenue from eBay.
Google Ad Revenues [10]
2006 $10,604,917,000
2007 Q1 $3,663,971,000
This represents less than 1% of Google's yearly ad revenues.
Any business intending to exist for the long term would be loathe to lose even this amount of revenue. But what if you could project down the road that purely based on the mercurial whim of the customer, the 1% would eventually become zero?
And what if the customer is aggressively moving into areas you sell in, reducing your own revenue stream?
Feint [11]
A feint attack is designed to draw defensive action towards the point under assault. It is usually used as a diversion to force the enemy to concentrate more manpower in a given area so that the opposing force in another area is weaker. Unlike a related diversionary maneuver, the demonstration, a feint involves actual contact with the enemy.
A feint retreat is performed by briefly engaging the enemy, then retreating. It is intended to draw the enemy pursuit into a prepared ambush, or to cause disarray.
Any reasonable person would expect eBay to react to Google's Boston party. Predictable behavior; prod eBay and eBay jumps.
The actual response is not 100% predictable.
Okay, you're Google. You need to know what eBay will do that will impact your business. eBay won't tell you. Your job then is to see how eBay responds in kind.
Possibilities.
eBay takes the high road and does nothing. Free speech, right to assemble.
eBay gives the appearance of strength, and does nothing except to say,"We keep an eye on their efforts." Hani Durzy, April 2007
eBay goes society tsk tsk and does nothing except say, "When we heard of their plans to have their party and the way they were marketing it, we were disappointed." Hani Durzy, eBay Live! 2007
eBay goes defensive and pushes the benefits of PayPal, and takes no other action.
eBay goes defensive, pushing the benefits of PayPal, and warning sellers about Google, "In our estimation, it fails in at least one requirement of the Accepted Payments Policy." Hani Durzy, 2006
etc.
And the very last possibility that an adult might expect from another adult:
eBay throws a tantrum.
Now you know eBay's response. Now you know what eBay can and will do.
Now everyone knows.
And everyone has seen your response. A Gentleman's response to doing something that bordered on questionable, but within your rights as a business.
And again if you're Google, you already had planned responses to eBay's responses.
And you absolutely know you're playing chess against an opponent used to Nintendo.
"This company truly is built by the community of users." Meg Whitman [12]
"It's a little like Frank Perdue crediting his chickens." Adam Lashinsky [12]
At this time, the message eBay sent to Google, also filtering to eBay sellers: ads can disappear at any time and sales decreased as a result. This is called collateral damage.
TSK, TSK.
You'll need a lot of patience following Google v eBay, as this tableau between Google and eBay may run several months.
I am betting though that Google is up to something, and this is only a peek.
What is the moral? Must be a moral. [13]
Remember the fight mentioned at the beginning? Fights last more than one round, and it's a lesson in patience.
"We will have the fortitude to do this." Larry Page, Google [5]
Ali vs Foreman, 30 October 1974:
"He then decided to take advantage of the young champion's one weakness: staying power.
In the second round, the challenger retreated to the ropes inviting Foreman to hit him, whilst counterpunching and verbally taunting the younger man. Ali's plan was to enrage Foreman and absorb his best blows in order to exhaust him mentally and physically.
The champion threw hundreds of punches in seven rounds but with decreasing technique and effect.
Google v eBay, It's not over til we get it right
Google v eBay, It's not over til we get it right
14 June 2007
by Robert Walsh
The Google's 'Let Freedom Ring' skirmish at eBay Live! Boston 2007 ended quickly. But "It ain't over till it's over." [1]
Not a great fan of sport allegories. But does this other one sound familiar?
"Leading up to the fight he had declared he was going to 'dance' and use his speed to keep away from Foreman and out box him. However in the first round Ali headed straight for the champion ... Ali caught Foreman nine times in the first round with this technique but failed to knock him out." [3]
Leading up to the June 14th opening of eBay Live! 2007, Google had this to say:
"Join us for a celebration of freedom and your right to use Google Checkout. Hop on a classic Beantown trolley outside eBay Live! and follow the freedom trail to the Old South Meeting House, where revolutionaries launched the Boston Tea Party and where eBay sellers will have a party of their own."
eBay reacted, and action from eBay was predictable to anyone.
The Hare
Shift mindset to long country drive for a moment and think about this.
eBay reacts quickly to stimuli, and prioritizes short term over long term. The latter leading to ignoring problems that have no immediate consequence.
"The notion that managers must above all appease investors drives behavior that focuses exclusively on quarterly results." Clayton M. Christensen and Scott D. Anthony [4]
To get an earful of how eBay reacts, read through eBay's Discussion Boards at http://pages.ebay.com/community/boards/
When you pick out that scintilla of how eBay runs it's day to day operations, you'll see it matches Corporate policy.
"The key thing is, if you make a mistake, have the courage to fix it quickly. I do think the price of inaction is far higher than the cost of making a mistake." Meg Whitman, eBay, 2002
The thing about this philosophy is it only looks good on paper. Or as might be found in some forgotten pseudo-hypothetical eBay Training Manual. "You don't want to make the problem worse by solving symptoms of the problem only to have the problem get worse or manifest itself in another way."
Or put another way:
The Tortoise
Google reacts slowly, thinks long term and is methodical about what it does. The weakness here is over thinking a situation to death and going nowhere.
"If opportunities arise that might cause us to sacrifice short-term results but are in the best long-term interest of our shareholders, we will take those opportunities," the letter read. "We will have the fortitude to do this." Larry Page, Google, 2004 [5]
A measure of this patience is seen in Google's Google Operating System project. [6] This has been ongoing for years with a projected 2010 release.
Neither method is perfect, but they do work. Billions in revenue is fair proof of that.
You can observe a lot just by watching. [7]
The distinction between eBay and Google planning philosophies is striking.
It also makes for easy predictability of how one will react.
Google, and anyone capable of thinking past 90 days, would have anticipated eBay's eventual removal of ads from Google. eBay had already established an exclusive ad relationship with a Google competitor, Yahoo! in May 2006. With more ads to come.
And there have been sufficient hints and facts dropped to anticipate what eBay would eventually do.
Not much forethought is required to see these probabilities. When you have a customer that appears to have bought more of your product, but not directly from your business, you know they're looking elsewhere.
The questions become:
The smart seller asks a customer, 'how can I make this better for you?'
Not being privy to Google and eBay talks, I'll take the leap that Google did ask eBay the same question. And got essentially got a nothing useful answer.
Depending on the source, Google receives $25 to $100 million a year in ad revenue from eBay.
Google Ad Revenues [10]
This represents less than 1% of Google's yearly ad revenues.
Any business intending to exist for the long term would be loathe to lose even this amount of revenue. But what if you could project down the road that purely based on the mercurial whim of the customer, the 1% would eventually become zero?
And what if the customer is aggressively moving into areas you sell in, reducing your own revenue stream?
Feint [11]
Any reasonable person would expect eBay to react to Google's Boston party. Predictable behavior; prod eBay and eBay jumps.
The actual response is not 100% predictable.
Okay, you're Google. You need to know what eBay will do that will impact your business. eBay won't tell you. Your job then is to see how eBay responds in kind.
Possibilities.
And the very last possibility that an adult might expect from another adult:
Now you know eBay's response. Now you know what eBay can and will do.
Now everyone knows.
And everyone has seen your response. A Gentleman's response to doing something that bordered on questionable, but within your rights as a business.
And again if you're Google, you already had planned responses to eBay's responses.
And you absolutely know you're playing chess against an opponent used to Nintendo.
"This company truly is built by the community of users." Meg Whitman [12]
At this time, the message eBay sent to Google, also filtering to eBay sellers: ads can disappear at any time and sales decreased as a result. This is called collateral damage.
TSK, TSK.
You'll need a lot of patience following Google v eBay, as this tableau between Google and eBay may run several months.
I am betting though that Google is up to something, and this is only a peek.
What is the moral? Must be a moral. [13]
Remember the fight mentioned at the beginning? Fights last more than one round, and it's a lesson in patience.
"We will have the fortitude to do this." Larry Page, Google [5]
Ali vs Foreman, 30 October 1974:
"He then decided to take advantage of the young champion's one weakness: staying power.
In the second round, the challenger retreated to the ropes inviting Foreman to hit him, whilst counterpunching and verbally taunting the younger man. Ali's plan was to enrage Foreman and absorb his best blows in order to exhaust him mentally and physically.
The champion threw hundreds of punches in seven rounds but with decreasing technique and effect.
This was later termed "The Rope-A-Dope". [3]
Only time will tell who's the "Dope."
//
Footnotes
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//
Posted at 20:03 in Commentary, eBay, Google | Permalink
Tags: eBay, Event Horizon 1984, Event Horizon Hawaii, EventHorizon1984, Gene Krantz, Google, Let Freedom Ring
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