Influenza Mortality versus COVID-19 Mortality

Influenza Mortality versus COVID-19 Mortality
EventHorizon1984
12 April 2020

“the 36,000 figure is a) an estimate, b) an average, and c) that these are "influenza-associated" deaths”
Beth P. Bell MD, MPH, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2008

You've probably run across this type of daily coronavirus post from a non-American:

• '62,000 flu deaths and the U.S. isn't shut down'

It's an 'apples and oranges' type of argument. There is a flu vaccine. There are multiple medical treatments, such as Tamiflu, for the influenza. While there is no COVID-19 vaccine nor fully tested Tamiflu drug equivalent.

Yet the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) does present the following:

Yet the CDC did say the number was an "estimate."

 

“Estimation: The fine art of guessing”
Jonathan Rasmusson

The CDC did have a methodology that produced the high end "62,000" mortality number.

• "Meanwhile, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), "influenza and pneumonia" took 62,034 lives in 2001—61,777 of which were attributed to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was flu virus positively identified."

The "61,777" pneumonia deaths are what the CDC described as "influenza associated deaths."

The CDC policy:

• "we do not agree that it is misleading to combine direct deaths associated with influenza with those likely associated with secondary pneumonia and estimates of those likely associated exacerbations of underlying chronic conditions by influenza into a single number"

To put some of these numbers into perspective:

• "Between 1979 and 2002, NCHS data show an average 1348 flu deaths per year (range 257 to 3006)."

These flu death statistics are from test results ("positively identified"). And not an "estimate."

To do an apples to apples comparison, you need to compare the positively identified deaths from influenza to positively identified deaths from COVID-19. Not add "associated" non-tested results.

Can that 2020 influenza number be obtained?

Yes, from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). On the CDC site.

 

“One civilian dead for every ten terrorists. That’s an acceptable ratio.” Fletcher
“Unless you’re one of the civilians” Frank Murphy
Blue Thunder (1983)

Week one of 2020, 416 influenza deaths.

Week:

1. 416
2. 450
3. 441
4. 468
5. 451
6. 481
7. 486
8. 501
9. 568
10. 552
11. 527
12. 435
13. 300

Week thirteen (ending March 28 2020) - 300 influenza deaths.

Total 2020 influenza deaths, 6076.

And 2019? From the start of the flu season; 1 October 2019, week 1.

1. 16
2. 16
3. 18
4. 30
5. 31
6. 31
7. 39
8. 50
9. 65
10. 99
11. 111
12. 125
13. 198

2019 influenza deaths, 829. Total influenza deaths for the 2019-2020 flu season so far, 6095.

The CDC characterizes 'flu season' as "influenza activity often begins to increase in October. Most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, although activity can last as late as May."

With two more months of flu season to go, it is unlikely the death toll for influenza will be anywhere near 62,000. Or even 24,000.

And what of COVID-19?

 

CDC, Washington State Report First COVID-19 Death
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Let's do a mortality comparison.

COVID-19 Total Deaths United States

• COVID-19
  • 29 February 2020 - 28 March 2020 - 2,112
  • 29 February 2020 - 12 April 2020 - 20,486

Influenza Total Deaths United States

• Influenza
  • 1 March 2020 - 28 March 2020 - 1,814

Draw your own conclusions.

But do it from home.

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“the thing what worries most of us in the field of public health is a respiratory illness that can spread even before someone is so sick that you want to keep them in bed.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, 2019

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